Understanding differences in firm responses to macroeconomic shocks is key for designing policy actions. This column identifies 67 macro shocks using ‘jump’ days in the US stock market over 2020-2022. It measures firm exposures using individual stock returns and, crucially, discussions of business risk factors in corporate filings. These exposures are largely uncorrelated for different […]
By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained low, the combination of which generated historically low sacrifice ratios (output losses per inflation reduction). These standard metrics for success, however, ignore adjustments in the price level, which rose by […]
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an end to stability in Europe. This column analyses the economic effects for Ukraine, Russia, as well as spillovers on other countries, using professional forecast data from 29 nations. Forecasters predicted that the war would be highly stagflationary for Ukraine and Russia, lowering GDP and increasing the price […]
Stanley Fischer, the World Bank’s chief economist from January 1988 to August 1990, passed away on May 31, 2025. Stan Fischer’s immense professional contributions to modern macroeconomic and monetary policy, both as faculty at MIT and in the positions he held thereafter—as the first deputy managing director of the IMF (1994-2001), in running the Bank […]
Escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and volatile policy shifts are reshaping the rules of global commerce and finance and bringing the dominance of the US dollar into question. This column argues that Europe has a historic opportunity to elevate the euro into a trusted global anchor of stability and thus rebalance a global monetary order […]
Central bank digital currencies are gaining traction as a potential innovation in central banking, with numerous countries considering their implementation. However, given the limited real-world experience with such currencies, researchers and policymakers depend on theoretical analysis to assess their potential. This column presents a new macroeconomic model that reveals significant welfare gains from introducing central […]
Policy debates around climate change frequently focus on the trade-off between the near-term costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term benefits of mitigating climate change. William Nordhaus highlighted the importance of aggregate productivity losses from climate change in shaping this intertemporal trade-off, but estimating these losses is challenging. This column examines both the direct […]
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict standard theoretical playbooks. Using euro area survey data, the authors find that households interpret policy through a lens shaped by recent crises – such as the energy shock following Russia’s […]
The introduction of value added taxes has been widely perceived as successful, boosting government revenue and stimulating industrialisation. This contrasts with the empirical finding that, in countries that are heavily dependent on exports of natural resources, the introduction of VAT has led on average to lower tax revenues and did not stimulate industrialisation. The findings […]
Forecasts underpinning budgetary plans have a well-documented impact on fiscal performance especially when policymakers view the world through rosy lenses. Combined with inertia in the implementation phase, optimism contributes to a possible deficit bias and the accumulation of government debt. This column introduces the new Forecast Tracker of the Secretariat of the European Fiscal Board, […]
