Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: Learning from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022
During the past 20 years, the world economy has suffered two major crises in the form of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Explaining firm-level reactions to macro shocks
Understanding differences in firm responses to macroeconomic shocks is key for designing policy actions. This column identifies 67 macro shocks using ‘jump’ days in the
The post-pandemic disinflation: Low sacrifice, high prices
By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained
The (projected) cost of Russian aggression
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an end to stability in Europe. This column analyses the economic effects for Ukraine, Russia, as well as
Stanley Fischer and the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics: A tribute
Stanley Fischer, the World Bank’s chief economist from January 1988 to August 1990, passed away on May 31, 2025. Stan Fischer’s immense professional contributions to
Europe must not waste its currency moment
Escalating geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and volatile policy shifts are reshaping the rules of global commerce and finance and bringing the dominance of the US
The macroeconomic effects of introducing a central bank digital currency
Central bank digital currencies are gaining traction as a potential innovation in central banking, with numerous countries considering their implementation. However, given the limited real-world
Climate change, firms, and aggregate productivity
Policy debates around climate change frequently focus on the trade-off between the near-term costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term benefits of mitigating climate
Households’ subjective expectations: Disagreement, common drivers, and reaction to aggregate shocks
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict
The value added tax paradox in resource-dependent economies
The introduction of value added taxes has been widely perceived as successful, boosting government revenue and stimulating industrialisation. This contrasts with the empirical finding that,
