When Wall Street drifts from Main Street: Consumption as an anchor for stock prices
Debate over whether buoyant equity markets reflect durable economic gains or a widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street has intensified with the AI
Geopolitical risk is reshaping global finance, one bank loan at a time
Geopolitical tensions are increasingly reshaping the flow of trade, investment and capital flows. This column documents that the same process is also reshaping bank lending.
Capital inflows boost output, even after accounting for expectations
Emerging market economies that are expected to perform well may attract more foreign capital, making it difficult to establish the causal effects of capital inflows
Quantifying financial repression through the lens of portfolio choice: A century of evidence
With public debt at high peacetime levels, how advanced economies can reduce debt burdens is again at the centre of policy debate. This column examines
Anatomy of a rise: Monetary policy and the post-Covid surge in long-term interest rates
The sharp rise in long-term interest rates since 2020 is difficult to explain from slow-moving fundamentals. This column shows that narrow windows around nonfarm payroll
How currency hedging moves exchange rates
Foreign investors’ growing holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have created a large demand to hedge dollar risk. Using outstanding FX forward and swap positions for seven
Why more information can make macroeconomic expectations less accurate: Global evidence from 47 countries
Households do not simply choose how much macroeconomic information to acquire; they choose among sources that differ in representativeness and credibility. Using a survey of
The exorbitant privilege of the periodic table
Trade in critical metals essential for electrification has become centred on China over the last three decades. This column introduces a new framework in which
When the news you watch shapes the inflation you expect
Central banks lean on communication to anchor inflation expectations. But most households learn about the economy from the news rather than from policy statements, and
A sober look at the case for common European Union debt
More EU debt will not lower public borrowing costs or deepen markets without fiscal-union features, permanent issuance and credible fiscal backstops. Proposals for common European
