Stablecoins and the macroeconomy: Bank disintermediation versus fiscal space
Stablecoins compete with banks for households’ holdings of safe and liquid assets, while creating additional demand for government debt. Building on a novel quantitative macroeconomic
Historic monetary tightening, benign output dynamics: Rising R-stars across the Atlantic
Nominal interest rates increased significantly in the US and euro area following the post-pandemic inflation surge, yet economic activity and labour markets remained resilient. This
Financing the AI boom: Winners and losers in corporate bond markets
The expansion of artificial intelligence has triggered a surge of investment and rising equity values at technology firms. The largest firms, known as ‘hyperscalers’, issued
Why downturns can make innovation greener
Green innovation is central for the transition to a low-carbon economy, but there are concerns that economic downturns may slow technological progress by reducing firms’
Ratings, debt, and deficits: An exploration
What matters more for sovereign credit ratings – today’s debt or tomorrow’s deficits? This column explores how ratings weigh the two and finds that ratings
Not all geopolitical shocks are inflationary
Geopolitical tensions are often seen as a source of inflation. But this is only part of the story. This column shows that geopolitical shocks transmitted
Cultural norms matter for macroeconomic development
Interest in the role of cultural norms, institutions, and development has resurfaced in recent years especially post the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics. This column
When Wall Street drifts from Main Street: Consumption as an anchor for stock prices
Debate over whether buoyant equity markets reflect durable economic gains or a widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street has intensified with the AI
Geopolitical risk is reshaping global finance, one bank loan at a time
Geopolitical tensions are increasingly reshaping the flow of trade, investment and capital flows. This column documents that the same process is also reshaping bank lending.
Capital inflows boost output, even after accounting for expectations
Emerging market economies that are expected to perform well may attract more foreign capital, making it difficult to establish the causal effects of capital inflows
