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Economy Featured Social Security World

When illusions of wealth shape the economy: Understanding pseudo-wealth, macroeconomic volatility, and social welfare

Pseudo-wealth is a perception of wealth that is not backed by real economic resources. When people have widely different beliefs, they create ‘wealth’ through betting. This column describes how this perceived wealth can rapidly inflate or deflate without changing real economic fundamentals, leading to volatility in spending and potential economic instability. It raises the question […]

Finance Banking Featured World

The Fisherian debt (de)inflation channel and stock returns

The recent global rise in prices has renewed interest in the distributional effects of the Fisherian debt-inflation channel, and its impact on firms’ activities. This column examines this channel using a novel high-frequency identification strategy that analyses firms’ stock market returns around inflation announcement dates. It finds that, following positive inflation surprises, firms with higher […]

Finance Featured News World

Who supplies and demands safe assets – and why it matters

Safe assets are the building blocks of modern financial markets. This column examines the sectoral dynamics of safe assets across advanced economies since the 1980s. It shows that foreign demand for these assets has steadily increased, with the financial sector playing a key role in meeting it. However, because financial institutions often back the safe […]

Productivity Featured Innovation Technology

The local effects of artificial intelligence labour investments: Evidence from the municipal bond market

The long-term effects of artificial intelligence are still unknown, as productivity benefits may be compromised by unintended costs. This column assesses the local effects of shocks to AI job postings on municipal capital markets. It finds that increases in postings are linked to declines in municipal bond yields, particularly for riskier and longer-term bonds. Furthermore, […]

Business Economy Featured World

Homeowners care about inflation, renters less so

Consumers have vastly different views about inflation – shaped by personal experience, financial literacy, and exposure to economic news. This column examines how consumers’ housing status shapes the attention they pay to inflation and their subsequent spending decisions, demonstrating marked differences between renters and homeowners. In an experiment conducted with US households between 2021 and […]