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Development

How can you use the Social Science Prediction Platform for development papers?

In 2020 a guest post on this blog noted the launch of the Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP). This platform is intended to facilitate the systematic collection and assessment of forecasts of social science results. We are both on the advisory board of the SSPP, and have used it in some of our own work, so have had a […]

Innovation

New data, old debates: US government-funded R&D and patent policy

Though federal spending on research and development has been a pillar of US innovation since World War II, the level and composition of that funding shows significant variation over time. This column introduces a comprehensive, open-access dataset identifying government-funded patents from 1900 to 2020, collected from administrative records of the US Patent and Trademark Office. […]

Education

Prolific PhD advisors are no guarantee of graduate student research success

Half of the graduates from top economics PhD programmes in the US publish next to nothing in the years following degree completion. This column studies the role of PhD advisors at eight elite schools, including Harvard, MIT, and Stanford, and finds that students guided by prolific advisors (in the sense of having many advisees) publish […]

public policy

Robust fiscal stabilisation

Recent fiscal projections for the US forecast a rising debt-GDP ratio which exceeds the peak at the end of World War II. This column shows that over the last 20 years, there is no longer evidence of a stabilising fiscal feedback, where higher projected deficits lead to more deficit reduction. It argues that the current […]

Politics trade

The bazooka diplomacy of Trump’s tariffs

President Trump’s recent pronouncements on tariffs have received considerable attention from analysts, policymakers, and commentators. This column takes a step back and considers some of the broader arguments for raising tariffs – revenue, restriction, and reciprocity – and the potential repercussions. Even if Trump does not proceed with (all of) the announced tariffs, the increased […]

Uncategorized Events

The Times Group ET NOW Global Business Summit 2025

Date: 15th-16th February 2025 Event Description: : Heralding its journey from 2015, The Times Group’s ETNow Global Business Summit has established itself as the pinnacle of intellectual engagement and strategic foresight, acclaimed as one of Asia’s foremost forum for reimagining the future of business and society. This distinguished platform unites the world’s most celebrated thought […]

transport

A Fork in the Road: Will Asia Prioritize Safety or Suffer Rising Fatalities?

While road fatalities in Asia and the Pacific have fallen 11% since 2010, progress remains uneven, with low- and middle-income countries lagging behind. Strengthening infrastructure, enforcing safety regulations, and securing sustainable financing are critical to meeting the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety goal. On average, one person dies on Asia’s roads every minute. […]

Technology

AI Can Free Human Intelligence for Discovery and Exploration

Artificial intelligence is reshaping knowledge generation, but human intelligence remains essential for ethical oversight, innovation, and problem-solving. Integrating AI into industries, shifting away from Industrial Era work models, and accelerating learning will be key to harnessing its full potential for sustainable development. Human cognitive abilities have grown over time, influenced by environmental and cultural factors. […]

Economy

Commodity prices, the business cycle, and inflation: International evidence, 1851-1913

Commodity prices played a critical role in the surge and decline of inflation since 2020. This column studies the relationship between commodity prices, consumer prices, and the business cycle for 15 economies in the years prior to World War I. It finds a strong positive relationship between inflation and commodity prices, even when focusing on […]

Climate

Why central banks need to understand the impact of the green transition on the macroeconomy

Governments across the world are implementing policies to address the threat from climate change and to transition their economies to net zero. The changes will increasingly have macroeconomic consequences over horizons relevant for monetary policymakers. This column introduces a framework to assist central banks to understand the macroeconomic effects of the green transition and describes […]