Independent central banks take more risk, not less
The fiscal dominance view holds that politically captured central banks are more likely to be pushed into taking risky positions, while independent ones resist. This
Trade restrictions, trade policy uncertainty and FDI flows
Trade policy has become a major source of macroeconomic risk. The sharp rise in trade restrictions and the growing unpredictability of trade rules are reshaping
Pension funds, unlisted firms, and Europe’s Capital Markets Union
Europe’s Capital Markets Union debate is again centred on how to turn savings into productive investment. This column uses Danish ownership and register data to
Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock
Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area
The early takeoff of space innovation
The conventional account of US space sector transformation credits the post-2005 entry of SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other commercial firms with revitalising a stagnant industry.
The global minimum tax: More winners than losers – even without the US
A landmark shift in the international corporate tax system is taking shape. The introduction of a 15% global minimum tax aims to reduce profit shifting
The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Global trade linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI
Productivity gains from AI are expected to be significant, but how international trade shapes the cross-country distribution of these gains remains an open question. This
Hungary has room to streamline public spending without hurting growth
Cutting some state operating and economic spending to the average of its regional peers could save Hungary more than four percent of GDP. Hungary’s new
Measuring capital account openness: Why intensity matters
Recent debates have highlighted the trade-offs between maintaining openness to foreign capital and safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability, but measuring the level of capital account
