The early takeoff of space innovation
The conventional account of US space sector transformation credits the post-2005 entry of SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other commercial firms with revitalising a stagnant industry.
The global minimum tax: More winners than losers – even without the US
A landmark shift in the international corporate tax system is taking shape. The introduction of a 15% global minimum tax aims to reduce profit shifting
The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Global trade linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI
Productivity gains from AI are expected to be significant, but how international trade shapes the cross-country distribution of these gains remains an open question. This
Hungary has room to streamline public spending without hurting growth
Cutting some state operating and economic spending to the average of its regional peers could save Hungary more than four percent of GDP. Hungary’s new
Measuring capital account openness: Why intensity matters
Recent debates have highlighted the trade-offs between maintaining openness to foreign capital and safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability, but measuring the level of capital account
The devil is in the tail: How firms’ beliefs about rare macroeconomic disasters shape investment
Little is known about how firms think about rare macroeconomic disasters and how these beliefs shape their decisions. This column uses survey evidence from a
Mapping the household-level transmission of monetary policy
The monetary tightening that followed the post-pandemic inflation episode has revived long-standing debates about how monetary policy affects households. This column uses a survey of
Macroeconomic policies for AI
While some observers argue that artificial intelligence may lead to large productivity gains, there are also concerns that it may lead to technological unemployment and
Identifying monetary policy shocks in newspapers using GPT
Identifying the shock component of monetary policy is a precondition for measuring its causal effects. This column proposes a novel approach: using large language models,
