The granular origins of inflation
Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation
When loss strikes twice: Health shocks and household financial distress
While many advanced economies shield their citizens from the most severe direct medical costs of illness, less is known about how households cope with income
Beyond military sales: The market premium on dual-use research and development
The sharp rise in European defence spending – driven by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Trump’s re-election and the weakening of US security guarantees,
Public money, private innovation: How government funding built – and sustains – America’s technological leadership
The US has long been the world’s innovation powerhouse, based on a system that combines public funding with private initiative. Yet this model is under
Trump’s tariffs as fiscal folly
In 2025, the US government underwent a large fiscal switch, with Congress enacting large income tax cuts and the second Trump administration putting new tariffs
What corporate earnings calls reveal about the AI stock rally
The launch of ChatGPT in late 2022 marked a turning point in how firms and investors view generative artificial intelligence. This column measures the extent
The economic impact of European capital market integration
Economic growth in Europe continues to lag behind that of the US, largely due to smaller productivity gains. This column uses a general equilibrium model
Ripples presaging a financial tsunami
Loss of confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency status could trigger a collapse of the US Treasury market and international financial fragmentation. This column
Europe’s trade surplus, international relative prices, and the productivity growth gap
The euro area faces persistently weak productivity growth alongside a sustained trade surplus and a trendless real exchange rate. This column shows that persistent productivity
A Three-Pronged Strategy Can Help Developing Economies Attract FDI and Unlock its Full Potential
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a critical role in the world economy. Global FDI flows averaged almost $2 trillion per year during the past decade, up
