Macroeconomic policies for AI
While some observers argue that artificial intelligence may lead to large productivity gains, there are also concerns that it may lead to technological unemployment and
Identifying monetary policy shocks in newspapers using GPT
Identifying the shock component of monetary policy is a precondition for measuring its causal effects. This column proposes a novel approach: using large language models,
The macroeconomic consequences of undermining central bank independence: Evidence from governor transitions
In recent years, several high-profile episodes have renewed concerns about central bank independence in practice. This column constructs a new cross-country dataset of central bank
Central bank digital currency, the future of money, and politics
A number of concerns have been raised regarding retail central bank digital currency. These range from competition and innovation, privacy issues, and monetary sovereignty. This
A wartime labour market: The case of Ukraine
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has generated one of the largest labour supply and reallocation shocks in recent history. This column reveals,
Fiscal drag in Europe: How inflation is quietly affecting public revenue
The 2022 inflationary spike in Europe has brought renewed interest in fiscal drag. Using harmonised microdata for 21 European countries, this column documents that the
From tariffs to trade flows: Diversion effects and China’s exports to the EU
High US tariffs on imports from China in the first half of 2025 led to concerns about a large-scale redirection of Chinese exports to the
A silver lining to the European energy crisis: Energy efficiency, productivity, and potential output
The 2022 natural gas price shock triggered the largest rise in fossil fuel prices in Europe since the 1970s. This column examines the impact on
Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Europe’s public finances in a warming world
Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances
