The perceived inflation wedge: Why households experience inflation differently from official statistics
Households often report inflation perceptions and expectations that differ markedly from official measures. This column proposes a new measure of perceived inflation, which uses disaggregated
Early-life experiences of labour markets faced by others can leave permanent scars on men’s willingness to work
Labour force participation among prime-aged American men has fallen for over half a century, and standard explanations leave much of the decline unaccounted for. This
ChatGPT’s financial advice: Supply, demand, and the life cycle
The rise of generative AI has raised hopes that high-quality, personalised financial advice might finally become cheap and universally accessible. This column develops a method
When trust in official statistics declines
Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Independent central banks take more risk, not less
The fiscal dominance view holds that politically captured central banks are more likely to be pushed into taking risky positions, while independent ones resist. This
Trade restrictions, trade policy uncertainty and FDI flows
Trade policy has become a major source of macroeconomic risk. The sharp rise in trade restrictions and the growing unpredictability of trade rules are reshaping
Pension funds, unlisted firms, and Europe’s Capital Markets Union
Europe’s Capital Markets Union debate is again centred on how to turn savings into productive investment. This column uses Danish ownership and register data to
Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock
Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area
The early takeoff of space innovation
The conventional account of US space sector transformation credits the post-2005 entry of SpaceX, Blue Origin, and other commercial firms with revitalising a stagnant industry.
The global minimum tax: More winners than losers – even without the US
A landmark shift in the international corporate tax system is taking shape. The introduction of a 15% global minimum tax aims to reduce profit shifting
