Oil prices steadied on Monday, after falling more than 4% last week, as investors looked towards talks this week between the U.S. and Russia over the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures slipped 14 cents, or 0.21%, at $66.45 a barrel by 11:15 a.m. EDT (1515 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 12 cents, […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
A key question in the context of a trade war is whether the burden of tariffs falls on foreign exporters or domestic importers. This column uses a firm-to-firm trade model with search frictions and French export data to study how cost shocks affect buying firms. It finds that while some buyers pay nothing, others face […]
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Monday it has opened national security investigations into the import of drones and related components as well as polysilicon, a key component in solar panels and semiconductors. The “Section 232” investigations, which were opened on July 1 but not publicly disclosed previously, could be used as a basis for […]
Chinese EV investment aids EU decarbonisation but brings risks, needing a united EU strategy to align it with climate, industrial and security aims. The European Union’s push to decarbonise road transport relies critically on a rapid shift to electric vehicles (EVs). However, European carmakers face high production costs and limited battery capacity, leaving them unable […]
Faced with declining fertility rates and persistent gender gaps, governments have expanded policies to support working families. But sudden increases in allowable parental leave can impose wage costs on firms and negatively affect firm survival. This column examines how Austrian firms responded to a parental leave reform for which they could plan. Whether mothers could […]
In January 2026, the European Union will require importers of certain carbon-intensive goods to pay for their products’ embodied carbon emissions. The policy, known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), could raise the cost of exporting these goods to the EU market, potentially affecting the competitiveness of exporters. To help developing countries assess the potential […]
During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise of inflation can be explained with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations, the tightness of the labour market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, and […]
Thailand’s coastal and marine resources are vital engines of growth. From pristine beaches that attract millions of tourists each year to the Eastern Economic Corridor that supports production and trade, the country’s “blue economy” involving 23 coastal provinces is estimated to contribute around 30 percent of Thailand’s GDP and one-fourth of the nation’s employment. As Thailand […]
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve is flat. Using pre-pandemic Belgian micro data, it shows that inflation responds to variations in production costs but is insensitive to variations in output. The flatness of the conventional output-gap […]
