Studies of the impact of robots on labour markets often conceptualise jobs as bundles of distinct tasks. In such frameworks, technologies substitute or complement workers. But this view may overestimate the potential adverse effects of automation, particularly in developing countries. This column distinguishes between technical feasibility and economic viability of adopting industrial robots and artificial […]
The world is moving into a period of entrenched manufacturing overcapacity, threatening deflation and stagnant growth. Over the past two decades, China has emerged as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. By offering goods at significantly lower prices than its competitors, China has captured a huge share of the global market. However, this flood of inexpensive goods […]
Expectations a closely-watched crop tour in the United States this week will boost expectations of large U.S. corn harvest also weakened corn Chicago soybean and corn futures fell on Monday, pressured by favourable U.S. weather and concerns over low export demand as trade tensions between the U.S. and top buyer China continued. Expectations a closely-watched […]
Oil prices steadied on Monday, after falling more than 4% last week, as investors looked towards talks this week between the U.S. and Russia over the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures slipped 14 cents, or 0.21%, at $66.45 a barrel by 11:15 a.m. EDT (1515 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 12 cents, […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
A key question in the context of a trade war is whether the burden of tariffs falls on foreign exporters or domestic importers. This column uses a firm-to-firm trade model with search frictions and French export data to study how cost shocks affect buying firms. It finds that while some buyers pay nothing, others face […]
The U.S. Commerce Department said on Monday it has opened national security investigations into the import of drones and related components as well as polysilicon, a key component in solar panels and semiconductors. The “Section 232” investigations, which were opened on July 1 but not publicly disclosed previously, could be used as a basis for […]
Chinese EV investment aids EU decarbonisation but brings risks, needing a united EU strategy to align it with climate, industrial and security aims. The European Union’s push to decarbonise road transport relies critically on a rapid shift to electric vehicles (EVs). However, European carmakers face high production costs and limited battery capacity, leaving them unable […]
Faced with declining fertility rates and persistent gender gaps, governments have expanded policies to support working families. But sudden increases in allowable parental leave can impose wage costs on firms and negatively affect firm survival. This column examines how Austrian firms responded to a parental leave reform for which they could plan. Whether mothers could […]
In January 2026, the European Union will require importers of certain carbon-intensive goods to pay for their products’ embodied carbon emissions. The policy, known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), could raise the cost of exporting these goods to the EU market, potentially affecting the competitiveness of exporters. To help developing countries assess the potential […]
