Chinese EV investment aids EU decarbonisation but brings risks, needing a united EU strategy to align it with climate, industrial and security aims. The European Union’s push to decarbonise road transport relies critically on a rapid shift to electric vehicles (EVs). However, European carmakers face high production costs and limited battery capacity, leaving them unable […]
Faced with declining fertility rates and persistent gender gaps, governments have expanded policies to support working families. But sudden increases in allowable parental leave can impose wage costs on firms and negatively affect firm survival. This column examines how Austrian firms responded to a parental leave reform for which they could plan. Whether mothers could […]
In January 2026, the European Union will require importers of certain carbon-intensive goods to pay for their products’ embodied carbon emissions. The policy, known as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), could raise the cost of exporting these goods to the EU market, potentially affecting the competitiveness of exporters. To help developing countries assess the potential […]
During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise of inflation can be explained with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations, the tightness of the labour market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, and […]
Thailand’s coastal and marine resources are vital engines of growth. From pristine beaches that attract millions of tourists each year to the Eastern Economic Corridor that supports production and trade, the country’s “blue economy” involving 23 coastal provinces is estimated to contribute around 30 percent of Thailand’s GDP and one-fourth of the nation’s employment. As Thailand […]
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve is flat. Using pre-pandemic Belgian micro data, it shows that inflation responds to variations in production costs but is insensitive to variations in output. The flatness of the conventional output-gap […]
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday after the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela, but an expected decision from OPEC+ later this week to increase production in July capped gains. Brent crude futures was up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.15 a barrel by 0852 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 […]
Implementation of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on the US’ trading partners would have far-reaching consequences for international trade patterns and the US and global economies. This column models the effects of an unanticipated permanent unilateral tariff imposed by the US and an assumed equal reaction on the part of the rest of the world. The […]
The views expressed in the Let’s Talk Development blog are solely those of the author(s). Commodity prices are projected to decline in 2025, driven by improved supplies, policy uncertainty, and an expected slowdown in global economic growth. Energy prices are expected to see the steepest drop, with the World Bank’s energy price index forecast to fall […]
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]
