During the pandemic, annual CPI inflation in the US rose sharply to a peak of 9% in June 2022. This column argues that the rise of inflation can be explained with a framework in which inflation depends on three factors: long-term expectations, the tightness of the labour market as measured by the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, and […]
Thailand’s coastal and marine resources are vital engines of growth. From pristine beaches that attract millions of tourists each year to the Eastern Economic Corridor that supports production and trade, the country’s “blue economy” involving 23 coastal provinces is estimated to contribute around 30 percent of Thailand’s GDP and one-fourth of the nation’s employment. As Thailand […]
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve is flat. Using pre-pandemic Belgian micro data, it shows that inflation responds to variations in production costs but is insensitive to variations in output. The flatness of the conventional output-gap […]
Oil prices held steady on Wednesday after the U.S. barred Chevron from exporting crude from Venezuela, but an expected decision from OPEC+ later this week to increase production in July capped gains. Brent crude futures was up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.15 a barrel by 0852 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 […]
Implementation of the “Liberation Day” tariffs on the US’ trading partners would have far-reaching consequences for international trade patterns and the US and global economies. This column models the effects of an unanticipated permanent unilateral tariff imposed by the US and an assumed equal reaction on the part of the rest of the world. The […]
The views expressed in the Let’s Talk Development blog are solely those of the author(s). Commodity prices are projected to decline in 2025, driven by improved supplies, policy uncertainty, and an expected slowdown in global economic growth. Energy prices are expected to see the steepest drop, with the World Bank’s energy price index forecast to fall […]
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]
Oil prices pared gains on Wednesday but rose for a second session, finding support from positive investor sentiment over U.S.-China trade talks to be held this weekend and signs of lower U.S. shale output. Brent crude futures climbed 34 cents a barrel, or around 0.6%, to $62.49 a barrel by 1220 GMT, while U.S. West […]
Over half of the world’s critical mineral reserves are located on or near Indigenous lands. As demand for critical minerals is set to surge 500 percent by 2050—and demand for land continues to grow—the need to secure Indigenous Peoples’ land tenure has never been more urgent. Clear and enforceable land rights are essential to regulating mining transparently and […]
Oil prices rebounded over 1% on Tuesday with technical rebound and dip buying after a drop in prior session by OPEC+ decision to accelerate increases in output, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted. Brent crude futures rose 92 cents to $61.15 a barrel by 0309 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added […]
