Supply shocks and inflation: Timely insights from financial markets
Determining the drivers of inflation in real time is a central challenge for central banks. This column introduces a new financial markets-based model to identify
Navigating the 2022 inflation surge: Lessons for monetary policy frameworks
The 2022 global inflation surge tested inflation-targeting frameworks under severe supply shocks. This column shows that, despite earlier and sharper tightening, inflation targeting central banks
Dollar index at three-month high, testing top of recent range
The yen was at 154.1 per dollar, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials. The dollar hovered near a three-month high
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and
The lasting economic scars of war
Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past 75 years, this column documents large
Dutch households spend less of their income on fixed and necessary expenditures
Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines fixed and necessary expenditures for middle-income
European stocks fall as traders wait for US inflation data
China’s Shanghai Composite Index hit its highest since August 2015, and European markets initially opened higher, but fell during the session. European stock markets slipped
What money will become: Seven key questions
The digital age has ushered in an era of transformation for money, triggering debates about the role of cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, and
Bank specialization and the transmission of euro area monetary policy
Bank lending is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the real economy. This column explores how the effects of monetary policy on credit
How the United States is eating Trump’s tariffs
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs accounted for perhaps 30-40 basis points of the latest core inflation reading of 2.9% but the effect should be
