Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Pricing cascades: Inflation in a networked economy
The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven
How the tariff war shock affected the ‘safe asset’ privilege of US Treasuries
US Treasury securities serve as the global safe asset due to their extreme safety and liquidity. However, the tariff shock in April 2025 led to
How the Fed makes decisions: Disagreement, beliefs, and the power of the Chair
Federal Open Market Committee statements typically sound unanimous, but the Committee’s internal debates rarely are. This column analyses historical meeting transcripts to show that policymakers
Forecasting inflation: The sum of the cycles outperforms the whole
Inflation reflects forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to slow-moving structural trends. Yet most forecasting models treat inflation as a single aggregate process.
Global economy shows signs of steady but subdued growth: UN
The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 predicts that global economic output will grow by 2.7 percent this year. The global economy has shown resilience
Inventories, diversification, and trade vulnerabilities
Reducing supply dependencies and vulnerabilities is now a cornerstone of economic policy. This column analyses how French manufacturing firms used inventories and diversified their country-specific
Global economy shows signs of steady but subdued growth: UN
The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 predicts that global economic output will grow by 2.7 percent this year. The global economy has shown resilience
Bank of Israel cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
The central bank’s benchmark rate was reduced to 4.00% from 4.25%. The Bank of Israel unexpectedly cut its short-term interest rate by 25 basis points
India forecasts 2025/26 economic growth at 7.4%
The Indian economy grew 6.5% in 2024/25 and 8.2% in 2023/24. India’s economy is expected to grow 7.4% in the fiscal year ending in March,
