UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence to illustrate the importance of fiscal policy in this period. While stabilising and reducing debt has been the primary peacetime fiscal policy objective for most of modern British history, this […]
Preliminary data releases can diverge significantly from subsequently revised figures, complicating economic policy decisions made in real time. This column shows how real-time GDP releases understated the strength of the post-pandemic recovery in both the euro area and the United States. This distorted view painted a more pessimistic picture than subsequently revised data revealed, masking […]
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column analyses more than a million Reuters news articles between 2001 and 2023 to capture supply and demand dynamics in commodity markets. The findings show that text-based indicators of supply and […]
Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered ‘looking through’ supply shocks. Using a New Keynesian framework in which agents gradually learn whether a cost-push shock is temporary or persistent, this column shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete. In contrast, a standard Taylor rule prevents an additional demand-driven inflation impulse […]
The Fed cut its rate by a quarter of a percentage point, in a move that won support from most of President Donald Trump’s central bank appointees Gulf central banks cut their key interest rates on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut U.S. interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year. […]
Sterling traded at $1.3545, slipping 0.2% after data showed the British economy stagnated in July. The dollar inched higher on Friday after falling the day before as a surge in U.S. jobless claims and a modest tick up in inflation kept investors zeroed in on likely Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next week and beyond. […]
Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector grew by 2% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Sri Lanka’s economy grew 4.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, official data showed on Monday, indicating a strengthening recovery from its worst financial crisis in decades. Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector grew by 2% in the second quarter from […]
Oil also received some support from solid refinery demand in China last month and a decline in US crude inventories. Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he was prepared to impose sanctions on Russia if NATO […]
The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. The dollar held steady on Wednesday ahead of U.S. inflation data this week that could help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, while a fraught geopolitical backdrop underpinned the likes of the Swiss franc. Employment […]
Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking Research Network Prudential Instrument database, this column shows that by 2023 most of the 64 countries considered have implemented most of the instruments. During the 2021-2023 inflation episode, cyclical prudential […]
