The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. The dollar held steady on Wednesday ahead of U.S. inflation data this week that could help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, while a fraught geopolitical backdrop underpinned the likes of the Swiss franc. Employment […]
Since the Global Crisis, prudential instruments to address financial stability concerns have been enhanced and broadly adopted across countries. Using the recently updated International Banking Research Network Prudential Instrument database, this column shows that by 2023 most of the 64 countries considered have implemented most of the instruments. During the 2021-2023 inflation episode, cyclical prudential […]
Euro zone business activity expanded in August, PMIs show. European stock markets fell slightly in early trading on Thursday, hovering just below recent highs, as traders avoided making big moves and waited for the Federal Reserve’s three-day annual Jackson Hole symposium. Jackson Hole starts on Thursday and focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s […]
The euro was up less than 0.1% at $1.1652, while sterling was flat at $1.3462. The U.S. dollar was little changed on Monday before Tuesday’s deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal and a key U.S. inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month. The […]
China’s yuan was flat at 7.195 per dollar in offshore trading. Currency markets were in a holding pattern on Tuesday, with traders’ reluctance to make large bets ahead of U.S. inflation data – important for Federal Reserve policy expectations – capping moves after UK jobs data and an Australian rate cut. A moderate reading on […]
Dollar on course to end week flat against EUR; lower against JPY, GBP The dollar was largely steady against the euro and British pound on Friday as traders trimmed wagers on monetary policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve following hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation data. The Japanese yen, meanwhile, firmed broadly following surprising strong economic growth […]
Investors weigh impact from Trump threats over Russian oil. Oil prices were little changed on Friday and heading for a weekly gain as investors weighed the impact of further tariffs and sanctions by U.S. President Donald Trump. Brent crude futures were down 35 cents, or 0.49%, at $71.35 a barrel by 1039 GMT. U.S. West […]
Central banks raise interest rates to reduce aggregate demand and bring inflation down. This column uses credit register data and product-level price data from the euro area to highlight a parallel and potentially offsetting supply-side mechanism. It shows that in markets where firms rely more heavily on floating-rate loans, the ECB’s monetary tightening had a […]
Inflation targeting has emerged as the dominant monetary policy framework in advanced and emerging market economies. This column discusses three main challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks: the recent high-inflation episode and increasingly frequent supply-side disruptions; expanding central bank balance sheets since the Global Crisis; and risks to central bank independence. The authors argue that […]
President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement triggered a discussion of whether import tariffs can reduce trade deficits or boost certain industries. This column develops a model, calibrated to the US economy, which illustrates how a uniform import tariff generates both expansionary effects upstream and contractionary effects downstream and is highly inflationary, reflecting its hybrid nature as […]
