The different effects of oil and gas supply shocks on euro area inflation
The surge in energy prices since March 2026 has revived questions about the pass-through to consumer prices. This column argues that oil supply shocks have
Dollar rises but still not far from pre-war levels, data awaited
Given the likelihood of elevated inflation readings, the CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar extended gains for a second straight session
AI rally fizzles as Middle East ceasefire goes on ‘life support’
Oil rises, stocks fall as Middle East ceasefire falters and Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Oil crept higher and the dollar rose on Tuesday as
Gold falls as fading Middle East peace hopes lift dollar, oil
Trump to visit China this week, to discuss Iran with Xi. Gold fell from a three-week high hit earlier on Tuesday, as slim hopes of
How UK firms are responding to the war in Iran: Early evidence from the Decision Maker Panel
The conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices sharply higher, but the implications for UK inflation will depend on the scale and duration
Quantifying the impact of the Iran war on US inflation
The outbreak of the Iran war in February 2026 has led to a major disruption to oil trade and a surge in oil prices. This
The macroeconomic consequences of undermining central bank independence: Evidence from governor transitions
In recent years, several high-profile episodes have renewed concerns about central bank independence in practice. This column constructs a new cross-country dataset of central bank
How X’s algorithm shifts political attitudes
Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on
Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Pricing cascades: Inflation in a networked economy
The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven
