When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock
With inflation still binding and fiscal space thin, the 2026 Iran shock revives the case for pre-committed, conditional yield anchors with clear exit. The 2026
Three trends that could unlock a golden decade for developing economies
Barring a miracle, the 2020s will prove to be what their ominous opening foreshadowed: a lost decade—not just for a couple of outliers, but for
One global shock, many inflation paths: Inflation persistence after the Great Moderation
The post-COVID inflation surge was global, but inflation persistence was not. This column argues that the key difference lies in how strongly external shocks fed
Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock
Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area
Gold falls on stronger dollar, oil amid renewed Middle East hostilities
Dollar, oil gain on fading hopes of US-Iran peace deal. Gold fell on Wednesday, weighed by a stronger dollar and rising oil prices as continuing
Why the post-pandemic US immigration surge barely moved inflation
The US experienced a large immigration surge between 2021 and 2024, which coincided with a period of high and then falling inflation. This column shows
Cheaper machines, costlier buildings: The drag on long-run growth
The steady decline in the relative price of equipment has long been seen as a primary engine of long-run growth. This column documents a quieter,
The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Global economic outlook hangs in balance between geopolitical headwinds and AI boost, WEF Chief Economists’ Outlook warns
Nearly nine in ten chief economists surveyed expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months. The global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply in
Global economic outlook hangs in balance between geopolitical headwinds and AI boost, WEF Chief Economists’ Outlook warns
Chief economists already rank the current closure duration of the Strait of Hormuz as significantly more disruptive than last year’s tariff turmoil. The global economic
