How UK firms are responding to the war in Iran: Early evidence from the Decision Maker Panel
The conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices sharply higher, but the implications for UK inflation will depend on the scale and duration
Quantifying the impact of the Iran war on US inflation
The outbreak of the Iran war in February 2026 has led to a major disruption to oil trade and a surge in oil prices. This
The macroeconomic consequences of undermining central bank independence: Evidence from governor transitions
In recent years, several high-profile episodes have renewed concerns about central bank independence in practice. This column constructs a new cross-country dataset of central bank
How X’s algorithm shifts political attitudes
Algorithms curate what users of social media see, raising concerns that they may distort attitudes and affect social and political outcomes. This column reports on
Why inflation may respond faster to big shocks: The rise of state-dependent pricing
Macroeconomic models distinguish time-dependent pricing, where firms change prices at fixed intervals, from state-dependent pricing, where firms change prices in response to changing demand or
Pricing cascades: Inflation in a networked economy
The post‑pandemic inflation surge is often attributed to pent-up demand and opportunistic price hikes by firms. This column argues that the surge was not driven
How the tariff war shock affected the ‘safe asset’ privilege of US Treasuries
US Treasury securities serve as the global safe asset due to their extreme safety and liquidity. However, the tariff shock in April 2025 led to
How the Fed makes decisions: Disagreement, beliefs, and the power of the Chair
Federal Open Market Committee statements typically sound unanimous, but the Committee’s internal debates rarely are. This column analyses historical meeting transcripts to show that policymakers
Forecasting inflation: The sum of the cycles outperforms the whole
Inflation reflects forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to slow-moving structural trends. Yet most forecasting models treat inflation as a single aggregate process.
Global economy shows signs of steady but subdued growth: UN
The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 predicts that global economic output will grow by 2.7 percent this year. The global economy has shown resilience
