Should the European Central Bank slow down quantitative tightening?
The ECB could slow down QT in response to currently tight financial conditions, but should communicate its intentions with care. Since early 2023, the European
The design and effect of tariff retaliation: Evidence from the EU
As global trade policy becomes increasingly protectionist, the threat of tariff retaliation looms large. This column analyses how the EU’s 2018 response to US steel
Not all reserves are born equal: Why the source matters for sovereign risk
Emerging market economies hold foreign exchange reserves to insure against currency crises and to cushion exchange rate movements. Reserves are generally associated with lower sovereign
The unequal burden of oil shocks: Labour markets and monetary policy
The war in Iran has sent oil prices sharply higher, reviving the question of who bears the cost of energy shocks and how central banks
When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock
With inflation still binding and fiscal space thin, the 2026 Iran shock revives the case for pre-committed, conditional yield anchors with clear exit. The 2026
Three trends that could unlock a golden decade for developing economies
Barring a miracle, the 2020s will prove to be what their ominous opening foreshadowed: a lost decade—not just for a couple of outliers, but for
One global shock, many inflation paths: Inflation persistence after the Great Moderation
The post-COVID inflation surge was global, but inflation persistence was not. This column argues that the key difference lies in how strongly external shocks fed
Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock
Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area
Gold falls on stronger dollar, oil amid renewed Middle East hostilities
Dollar, oil gain on fading hopes of US-Iran peace deal. Gold fell on Wednesday, weighed by a stronger dollar and rising oil prices as continuing
Why the post-pandemic US immigration surge barely moved inflation
The US experienced a large immigration surge between 2021 and 2024, which coincided with a period of high and then falling inflation. This column shows
