Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock
Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area
Gold falls on stronger dollar, oil amid renewed Middle East hostilities
Dollar, oil gain on fading hopes of US-Iran peace deal. Gold fell on Wednesday, weighed by a stronger dollar and rising oil prices as continuing
Why the post-pandemic US immigration surge barely moved inflation
The US experienced a large immigration surge between 2021 and 2024, which coincided with a period of high and then falling inflation. This column shows
Cheaper machines, costlier buildings: The drag on long-run growth
The steady decline in the relative price of equipment has long been seen as a primary engine of long-run growth. This column documents a quieter,
The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Global economic outlook hangs in balance between geopolitical headwinds and AI boost, WEF Chief Economists’ Outlook warns
Nearly nine in ten chief economists surveyed expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months. The global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply in
Global economic outlook hangs in balance between geopolitical headwinds and AI boost, WEF Chief Economists’ Outlook warns
Chief economists already rank the current closure duration of the Strait of Hormuz as significantly more disruptive than last year’s tariff turmoil. The global economic
Hungary has room to streamline public spending without hurting growth
Cutting some state operating and economic spending to the average of its regional peers could save Hungary more than four percent of GDP. Hungary’s new
Gold falls as dollar and yields climb, inflation pressures hover
Despite being an inflation hedge, gold struggles in an elevated interest rate environment. Gold eased on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and high
When energy shocks bite harder: Non-linear inflation dynamics
The conflict in the Middle East has exposed the euro area to higher energy prices. Using a flexible empirical framework, this column shows that inflation
