Across emerging Europe, regional income disparities remain stubborn, narrowing at just 1% annually. This final column in a three-part series examines the effectiveness of Special Economic Zones in addressing these gaps. The analysis shows that while they tend to boost economic activity at a very local level, only 40% of Special Economic Zones can be […]
Donald Trump’s victory in the recent US presidential election has re-ignited a debate over the macroeconomic effects of tariffs and the appropriate monetary policy response. This column argues that even if there is broad agreement that new tariffs would likely be inflationary for the US, the current situation presents various factors which suggest that it […]
The pursuit of export-led growth through manufacturing has become increasingly difficult in the face of growing global competition. A shift towards service export-led growth offers new opportunities, but it also demands investments in human capital, infrastructure, and institutional capacity. This second column in a three-part series explores the emerging service export model, its potential for […]
Accelerating the transition to a green economy is a necessity. This column argues that the green transition will create trade-offs for central banks. Phasing out polluting technologies is likely to temporarily slow down productivity growth, thus creating inflationary pressures. If central banks choose to ‘look through’ and let inflation temporarily rise, inflation expectations may de-anchor. […]
Industrial policies have experienced a resurgence in recent years, including in emerging markets, as governments seek to reshape their economies and assert greater control over industrial sectors. This trend is likely driven by political economy factors, such as a desire for a more active state, and in response to foreign governments supporting their own domestic […]
Policy discussions around online anonymity have intensified in academic and professional communities. While anonymity facilitates free expression, it also liberates offensive conduct. This column identifies links between the Economics Job Market Rumors forum and patterns of user behaviour. Initially created to support job-market candidates in economics, the site has become a platform for sexist, racist, […]
Commentary on the 2024 US elections included the Democratic Party’s failure to connect with issues of community, place, family, religion, and identity. This column presents evidence from research papers published in the top economics journals since 1900 showing that half a century ago, economists took a little noticed turn towards precisely these topics. The authors […]
Despite its immense potential, text analysis at scale presents significant challenges. This column benchmarks several state-of-the-art large language models against incentivised human coders in performing complex text analysis tasks. The results indicate that large language models consistently outperform outsourced human coders across a broad range of tasks, and thus provide economists with a cost-effective and […]
The green transition faces significant challenges due to economic and policy uncertainty. Unpredictable returns on investments, especially in renewable energy, hinder innovation in this crucial sector. This column examines the impact of uncertainty on renewable energy patents. The findings show that a rise in uncertainty reduces green innovation by up to 1.5%, with stronger effects […]
As the world meets at the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, stories about the unsustainability of the data centres that power artificial intelligence are making headlines every day. This column introduces the concept of an ‘eco-political economy of AI’, covering each step from mining materials to processing data to digital waste. Only by examining […]
