The re-election of Donald Trump, who ran on a platform that prioritised protectionist policies, has led to heightened uncertainty in the global economy. The January 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked its panel about the impact of the tariffs Trump proposed as president-elect on the EU economy. A clear majority of the panel believed the effect to […]
As elections continue to polarise societies, understanding their psychological dimensions can help both parties and policymakers anticipate how political events impact public wellbeing. This column analyses data from the last four US presidential elections to study drivers of self-reported happiness. The authors find that happiness responds to changes in both the political status quo (the […]
When analysing short-term dynamics in economic models, it is essential to consider long-run conditions that shape forward-looking behaviour. However, enforcing long-run boundary conditions complicates solving dynamic models, particularly high-dimensional ones. This column shows that machine learning, in particular deep learning, can satisfy these conditions without explicit enforcements, allowing for global solutions in many models of […]
Local GDP measures are crucial for economic research but are often unreliable or unavailable, particularly in developing countries. Meanwhile, traditional proxies like nightlights have limitations. This column uses a variety of remote sensing and emissions data to estimate local GDP using machine learning. The estimates successfully portray the cross-section and dynamics of local GDP well, […]
Large disparities by socioeconomic status in educational attainment and the likelihood of obtaining a university degree have been widely studied, increasingly with a focus on the types of undergraduate programmes that students pursue. This column explores instead how socioeconomic status affects the choice of graduate degree in Ireland and the impact this has on earnings […]
The European Commission’s ReArm Europe plan, published on 5 March, aims to trigger €800 billion in defence investments over four years. European Union money would be limited to €150 billion in the form of loans and the plan hinges on increasing military spending by national governments and “mobilising private capital” 1 But without clarification on the acceptability of […]
Since 2000, online platforms that are now within the scope of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), have bought nearly 700 small, promising companies worldwide. However, only 19 of their attempted acquisitions were notified to the European Commission, the authority exercising merger control over deals with a substantive EU connection. In the other cases, […]
Over the past four decades, the US has seen rising market power, slowing productivity growth, and deepening wealth inequality. This column explores how declining competition may be the common culprit. Weak competition lets dominant firms raise prices, suppress wages, and stifle innovation, thereby slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, higher asset returns benefit the wealthy, widening inequality […]
In an era of increasing political polarisation, public trust in institutions like the US Federal Reserve has become a contentious issue. This column shows that individuals who believe the Fed shares their political commitments report higher trust, lower inflation expectations, and greater independence. Conversely, those who see the Fed as biased exhibit scepticism and higher […]
The Bank of Spain said on Tuesday that it expects the country’s economy to expand by a strong 2.7% this year, up from the 2.5% forecast in its previous quarterly update, thanks to soaring private consumption, in contrast with the rest of the euro zone. The bank attributed the increase to recent growth data published […]
