High temperature shocks create monetary policy trade-offs. This column uses a new monthly data set to study how 14 European central banks have responded to abnormally high temperatures in a centennial perspective (1920-2019). High temperature shocks are negative supply shocks to which central banks have reacted by lowering their interest rates. The macroeconomic impact of […]
In 2017 China banned the import of plastic waste, which led to large reallocations of plastic waste between countries. This column discusses the lessons that can be drawn for the planned EU reform of the EU Waste Shipments Regulation. While the overall trade of waste within Europe did not increase as a result of the […]
Social mobility in pre-industrial times has been argued to be much lower than often estimated and that it hardly changes over time. This column uses family records from central China over 1300–1900 to estimate social mobility. Within this sample, intergenerational mobility was not necessarily low and changed over time: mobility was substantially higher in the […]
Estimates of China’s military spending relative to the US vary widely from around one quarter of US spending to near parity. This column argues that the use of appropriate relative prices and unbiased economic measurement techniques greatly reduces the range of reasonable estimates. Given current data, China’s military expenditure in PPP terms is estimated to […]
Aggregate exports are highly concentrated in a small group of firms, which are generally more productive than other firms. This column shows that productivity shocks generate different responses of aggregate exports depending on the characteristics of the whole productivity distribution of active firms. Most of the action is driven by superstar firms. Aggregate exports grow […]
Authoritarian regimes often maintain power via cultivating misperceptions about the quality of state institutions and the value of democracy. This leads citizens to underestimate the deterioration of democratic institutions, affecting their voting behaviour. This column presents findings from a study of voters during the May 2023 Turkish presidential elections. Providing accurate information significantly increased support […]
Climate change is making the Philippines more vulnerable to tropical storms, with rising temperatures already putting the country at nearly double the risk of deadly typhoons, scientists said in a report published on Thursday. The unprecedented formation of four typhoons around the Philippines last month was made 70% more likely as a result of global temperature […]
HSBC is reviewing its retail banking operations outside the UK and Hong Kong, which could see it substantially scale back operations in other countries, including Mexico, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions. The bank is looking outside its core markets to reduce consumer presence and focus on wealthier “premier” customers, […]
Economic growth in the Netherlands will pick up in the coming years unless U.S. import tariffs and European retaliation unleash a trade war, the Dutch central bank (DNB) said on Friday. Growth in the euro zone’s fifth-largest economy is expected to accelerate to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026, following a 0.9% expansion this year, […]
Major brokerages including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup expect the European Central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again at its first meeting of 2025 on Jan. 30 as inflation slows. Forecasters at financial institutions also see further rate cuts in 2025, with the ECB’s benchmark rate largely expected to […]
