By some criteria, the post-pandemic disinflation was a triumph for central banks in advanced economies: inflation fell sharply from 40-year highs while unemployment rates remained low, the combination of which generated historically low sacrifice ratios (output losses per inflation reduction). These standard metrics for success, however, ignore adjustments in the price level, which rose by […]
The US administration’s latest threat to impose sweeping new tariffs on many of its closest allies signals a renewed embrace of aggressive unilateralism and misunderstood economics. This column argues that the only effective response is a coordinated one. Unified retaliation by a coalition of like-minded countries made up of the EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and […]
In the first half of 2025, the US and some of its trading partners announced significant changes to import tariffs. This column uses newly designed questions to study the impact of these changes on UK firms and to assess the level of trade uncertainty. On average, the majority of firms expect no material impact on […]
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine marked an end to stability in Europe. This column analyses the economic effects for Ukraine, Russia, as well as spillovers on other countries, using professional forecast data from 29 nations. Forecasters predicted that the war would be highly stagflationary for Ukraine and Russia, lowering GDP and increasing the price […]
Family-friendly policies often aim to make it ‘easier’ to have children, yet little is known about how firms respond to such policies. This column develops a structural model of the labour market and applies it to administrative data from Spain to show that while family-friendly policies that provide job security increase fertility by making motherhood […]
Numerous central banks started to build the countercyclical capital buffer as bank profitability began to soar during the recent tightening cycle. Recent evidence suggests that building the buffer when there is headroom for doing so does not harm lending in the short-term and tends to increase it at longer horizons. This column proposes a quantitative […]
Asia’s rise as a global carbon trading hub is grounded in its strong financial infrastructure, forward-looking regulatory environment, and commitment to environmental innovation. As a regional and international hub, Singapore attracts governments, investors, project developers, and environmental organizations looking to scale credible carbon credit solutions. Facilitating transparent and high-integrity carbon pricing and trading systems can […]
I have a new paper coming out in a symposium on power calculations in the journal Fiscal Studies, which puts together my tips for applied researchers on designing and analyzing powerful experiments. It pulls together some of the advice I’ve offered in this blog over the years, as well as from classes I teach on experimental design and […]
An estimated 254 million people (approximately 3 in 100) lived with chronic hepatitis B in 2022, a virus which causes inflammation of the liver and can lead to severe liver disease and liver cancer. Despite the disease being preventable and treatable, an estimated 1.1 million people died from hepatitis B in 2022 alone. Indonesia (17.5 million), Nigeria […]
Over the past year, I’ve seen a growing interest in, and a stronger demand for, better tools to prepare for and respond to crises. Our partners in government, the private sector, civil society, foundations, and other development organizations send us the same message time and time again: In the face of crisis, we need greater […]
