Expanding funded pensions via auto-enrolment could boost long-term investment and saver security, allowing the EU to address its investment gap. The European Union faces a significant investment gap. Meanwhile, an ageing population is putting pressure on the EU’s predominantly unfunded pension systems. Insurance companies and pension funds sit at the intersection of these challenges: as […]
The new Trumpian tariffs are not the familiar protectionism G7 nations have applied for decades. Instead of shielding particular sectors, they wall off the entire American goods-producing economy from foreign competition. This is precisely the logic of 20th-century import substitution industrialisation – a strategy widely tried, and widely abandoned, because it raised costs, bred inefficiency, […]
Within minutes of the result of the 2024 US presidential election becoming clear, it triggered a global tremor in currency markets. This column investigates how institutional quality shaped currency responses to the election, using high-frequency exchange rate data for 73 countries. Virtually all currencies depreciated against the dollar immediately following the election result, which markets […]
The current US administration’s approach to financial markets and institutions mixes familiar deregulatory policies with a range of other policies that are largely without precedent. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, catalogues the relevant policy shifts that are likely to affect the financial sector and […]
Digital currencies pegged to fiat money face a built-in tension between credibility and competition, creating a ‘stablecoin paradox’. This column analyses the competing frameworks of the US and China to address the paradox. The US (under the GENIUS Act) combines strict reserve rules for privately issued, fully backed dollar stablecoins with market incentives that encourage […]
The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump […]
Financial markets are volatile, and research attributes this to highly variable and often irrational investor beliefs. This column uses a large-scale survey of Chinese retail investors to study the role of investor memory in financial decision-making. Combining free recall of market episodes and probed recall of personal returns, it finds that sharp crashes and dramatic […]
Rising interest rates expose the interaction between hidden losses on long-duration assets and flighty uninsured deposits. This column uses confidential data for 139 euro area banks to analyse this mechanism. It estimates that unrealised losses on loans and bonds held at amortised cost averaged about 30% by September 2023, and were largest for smaller retail […]
Industrial policy is increasingly implemented worldwide, with many policymakers and researchers highlighting its benefits. However, the cost of industrial policy remains less understood. Using Chinese firm-level data, this column shows that higher industrial subsidies raise the likelihood and severity of foreign anti-dumping and countervailing duties at each investigation stage. These retaliatory tariffs wipe out roughly […]
The introduction of crypto technology and tokenisation is spurring changes in the financial system. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is taking steps to integrate crypto into traditional finance, most notably the GENIUS Act’s establishment of a regulatory regime for payment stablecoins. This column explores the US’ policy goals concerning digital assets and argues that tokenisation – […]
