When Wall Street drifts from Main Street: Consumption as an anchor for stock prices
Debate over whether buoyant equity markets reflect durable economic gains or a widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street has intensified with the AI
Lifting the curtain on the EU’s debt
The EU’s far-reaching response to a series of major shocks has turned it into a major borrower on international financial markets. Debt issued by the
The smokestack illusion: Who really pays for net zero
Reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, as prescribed by the Paris Agreement, is hard to imagine without a carbon tax. This column estimates that reaching
AI’s gains are large and rising, but unevenly shared
How large is the labour cost saved by AI, and how is it distributed across occupations? Using five waves of the Anthropic Economic Index from
How the rise of AI matters for fiscal policy
Predictions of the effects of AI on the economy and society tend to focus on productivity growth, job losses, and shifts in the distribution of
Safe debt financing: International spillovers and the benefits of fiscal policy coordination
Safe government bonds enjoy a discount known as the convenience yield. When a government issues more debt, it erodes this discount for itself and for
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism,
After the fire: How Ukrainian strikes disrupt local economies around Russian refineries
Measuring the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries is difficult because reliable local data are scarce and both information and
The macroeconomic impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility: An analysis for Italy, Spain, and Greece
The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility was launched to support post-Covid recovery while accelerating structural transformation through investment and reform. This column provides a preliminary
How large current account imbalances unwind: Evidence from historical adjustment episodes
Global imbalances are back in the policy debate. This column examines 70 current account adjustment episodes across 51 economies from 1980 to 2024 to discover
