How the rise of AI matters for fiscal policy
Predictions of the effects of AI on the economy and society tend to focus on productivity growth, job losses, and shifts in the distribution of
Safe debt financing: International spillovers and the benefits of fiscal policy coordination
Safe government bonds enjoy a discount known as the convenience yield. When a government issues more debt, it erodes this discount for itself and for
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism,
After the fire: How Ukrainian strikes disrupt local economies around Russian refineries
Measuring the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries is difficult because reliable local data are scarce and both information and
The macroeconomic impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility: An analysis for Italy, Spain, and Greece
The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility was launched to support post-Covid recovery while accelerating structural transformation through investment and reform. This column provides a preliminary
How large current account imbalances unwind: Evidence from historical adjustment episodes
Global imbalances are back in the policy debate. This column examines 70 current account adjustment episodes across 51 economies from 1980 to 2024 to discover
The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility: Experience and lessons for the next multiannual financial framework
The EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility has become a central test case for performance-based fiscal policy. Its experience offers lessons for the design of the
The hidden unfairness in your tax system and how to fix it
In many developing countries, two people can earn the same income and pay very different amounts of tax — not because of different rates, but
When trust in official statistics declines
Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fiscal rules compliance and sovereign borrowing costs: Some evidence from the euro area
Governments with well-designed fiscal rules generally enjoy lower yields but less is known about whether investors price compliance with these rules. Using a panel of
