The hidden cycle: How informality shapes fiscal policy and sovereign default
The informal sector tends to expand during economic downturns and contract in recoveries, and is also highly sensitive to fiscal policy. This column explores the
The macroeconomic implications of extreme weather events: Insights from advanced economies
Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity, yet their macroeconomic impacts remain poorly understood. This column argues that the highly localised nature of
Data, power and emissions: How AI’s growth may slow down the green transition
AI and other data-intensive technologies may help optimise energy use, but the technologies themselves are power hungry. This column explores how the diffusion of AI
Gender wealth inequality in the European Union: a distributional perspective
Analysis of single women and men in Europe reveals persistent gender wealth gaps and differing patterns across countries. This paper investigates gender-related disparities in wealth
Leading firms are falling behind in developing East Asia
For decades, East Asia has been a paragon of economic dynamism. But today, in an era of rapid global technological advances, productivity growth in the
Trade finance: A lifeline for jobs and businesses
When a farmer in Ghana can’t import fertilizer to grow maize or a pharmacy in Pakistan runs short of antibiotics, the barrier is rarely the
What Germany’s medium-term fiscal plan means for Europe
EU leniency on Germany’s fiscal plan highlights rule rigidity and the need for reform to support investment. Germany’s July 2025 medium-term fiscal-structural plan exposes the
Speaking of debt: Framing, guilt, and economic choices
In many Germanic languages, the word for ‘debt’ also means ‘guilt’. This column explores whether the linguistic overlap leads to greater debt aversion in Germany,
Geopolitical tensions and international financial fragmentation: The 28th Geneva Report on the World Economy
Rising geopolitical tensions now threaten the rules-based world order that has governed the functioning of the international monetary system since WWII with risks of geoeconomic
IMF sounds alarm about high global public debt, urges countries to build buffers
The IMF this week edged up its 2025 global growth forecast given a more benign impact from tariffs. Global public debt is projected to rise
