Why budget reliability matters Accurate revenue and expenditure forecasting is crucial for effective budgeting to ensure that governments can adequately plan for public services, infrastructure projects, and social programs without unexpected shortfalls. When forecasting is not accurate, governments may not be able to achieve fiscal stability and deliver on policy priorities. In this blog, we try […]
In 2018, after 3 years of droughts, the city of Cape Town in South Africa faced severe water shortages. Dam reservoir capacity had dropped to critical levels and the city was fast approaching “Day Zero” of no water availability. Desalination, new dams, strict water usage limits – all solutions were on the table. Solving the […]
The conventional wisdom is that uncertainty leads to economic contractions, but recent evidence challenges this assumption. This column introduces two novel concepts of uncertainty – agreed and disagreed uncertainty. It shows that when uncertainty is accompanied by widespread consumer disagreement about economic conditions (disagreed uncertainty), the economy remains stable despite the elevated uncertainty. In contrast, […]
Pseudo-wealth is a perception of wealth that is not backed by real economic resources. When people have widely different beliefs, they create ‘wealth’ through betting. This column describes how this perceived wealth can rapidly inflate or deflate without changing real economic fundamentals, leading to volatility in spending and potential economic instability. It raises the question […]
Oil prices climbed about 2% to a two-week high on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily slash tariffs, raising hopes of an end to the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. Brent crude futures rose $1.35, or 2.1%, to $65.26 a barrel by 11:39 a.m. EDT (1539 GMT), while U.S. […]
NRG Energy said on Monday it would acquire power generation assets from energy infrastructure investment firm LS Power in a deal valued at $12 billion, as the U.S. utility bets on surging electricity demand, sending shares up more than 24% to hit an all-time high of $148.30. With U.S. power demand set to hit record highs in […]
Since mid-2021, the euro-area economy has gone through several shocks, leading to the highest inflation since the creation of the European Monetary Union. A forceful and persistent response from the European Central Bank, grounded in the monetary policy framework it agreed in 2021 ahead of the inflationary episode, has succeeded in bringing inflation down and […]
Government spending on defence, particularly defence R&D, can have significant economic spillovers. This column argues that the forthcoming European defence build-up must include a long-term strategy to develop high-quality human capital. Military human capital development serves a dual-purpose role: it is crucial for the modern (largely non-combat) battlefield, and also valuable for long-run productivity growth. […]
The recent shift in trade policy by the new US administration is impacting global trade and creating volatility in financial markets. This column quantifies the economic impact of the 2nd April tariffs on Europe, discusses the financial market response to the announcement, and looks at the role of the exchange rate response for the transmission […]
Recent tariff measures by the US and countermeasures by its trading partners have dominated global policy debates. Using three economic models, this column shows how the tariffs impact trade flows, output, and welfare, especially in North America and China. In the short term, tariffs act as negative supply shocks for tariffing countries (depressing output while […]
