Donald Trump’s re-election as president of the United States on 5 November has stirred both optimism and apprehension in global financial markets. As his administration embarks on a policy agenda heavily focused on tax cuts, trade protectionism, deregulation, and stricter immigration policies – collectively known as Agenda 47 – investors and analysts are evaluating the […]
As climate-related disasters become increasingly frequent and destructive, one might expect first-hand experience of these events to bring consensus on the urgency of addressing climate change. Yet, the deep ideological divide on this issue in the US and beyond – combined with highly polarised media coverage – may hinder this process. Combining data on the […]
The question of why productivity growth slowed from the early- to mid-2000s continues to interest policymakers, but researchers have paid less attention to the role of human capital accumulation. This column suggests that one-sixth of the productivity slowdown in OECD countries can be accounted for by slowing human capital accumulation, and that the use of […]
Bank runs are notoriously difficult to measure systematically. This column constructs two novel, cross-country databases on bank run events in 184 countries over 1800-2023 and bank sector outstanding deposits. It shows that the costs of systemic bank runs are substantial – real GDP is on average 9% below its pre-run trend. These output losses are […]
The shift from fossil fuels to renewable technologies may render the global economy less oil-intensive and more metals-intensive. This column examines how metals supply shocks propagate through production networks and impact inflation. It finds that copper supply shocks have significant and persistent effects on both headline and core inflation. In comparison, oil supply shocks mostly […]
Demand for green power in the United States will grow regardless of who is the country’s next president, major players in the wind energy sector Vestas and Orsted said on Tuesday. Offshore wind developers have seen profits shrink in recent years due to rising raw material costs, high interest rates, inadequate grid connections, supply chain bottlenecks, and Chinese […]
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to slash crude prices for Asian buyers in January to the lowest in years, largely tracking a slump in Middle East benchmark prices last month, traders said on Monday. The January official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light may fall by 70 to 90 cents a barrel […]
Just days before UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel set his sight on a takeover target in Italy, more evidence emerged of fierce resistance to his interest in German flagship lender Commerzbank. A group of customers from Germany’s corporate elite pleaded with Commerzbank’s CEO to reject a deal, according to people involved in the meeting at the […]
Singapore’s central bank said on Monday it fined U.S. lender JPMorgan Chase S$2.4 million ($1.79 million) for failing to prevent and detect misconduct committed by its relationship managers. The Monetary Authority of Singapore JPMorgan’s relationship managers provided inaccurate or incomplete information to clients in 24 instances of over-the-counter bond transactions, charging them spreads above the agreed […]
Negative economic shocks can cause waves of investor pessimism about the resilience of banks, which in turn generate additional adverse macroeconomic effects. This column introduces the notion of pessimism in a real business cycle model. The possibility of waves of pessimism generates countercyclical demand from banks for liquid assets, such as bank reserves. Applying the […]
