History is full of evidence that tariffs harm economic performance. This column assesses the two waves of globalisation in modern history and how they were interrupted by barriers to trade. The first wave started in the mid-19th century and lasted until WWI, while the second wave started after WWII and lasted until the Global Crisis […]
In June 2016, Donald Trump justified the protectionist policies during his first administration as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country”. This column shows that while the trade war with China failed to create jobs at home, it did boost employment in Brazil. Regions in the country specialised in industries targeted […]
As social media platforms become ever more ubiquitous, policymakers are grappling with how to counter their effects on political attitudes and electoral outcomes, addiction and mental health, misinformation and toxic content. This column suggests practical ways that academic researchers can help guide the design of government regulations aiming to address these issues. The authors explain […]
The sanctions which followed the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine generated a large trade shock for firms trading with Russia. This column examines the short-run response of firms in Latvia – a small open economy with strong pre-war trade ties with Russia. The author finds that firms with lower initial exposure to Russia were the […]
Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine has devastated Ukraine’s scientific productivity. This column examines the war’s impact on Ukrainian research output, drawing on a dataset of over half a million journal articles by researchers affiliated with over 15,000 Ukrainian institutions. Military conflict significantly reduced research activity, particularly in natural sciences, engineering, and the social sciences, with […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Recent evolutions in US attitudes and policies have raised questions about the future of the dollar’s role in the global economy. This column explores a hypothetical scenario in which the world is deprived of the dollar as its global safe asset. In such a world, interest rates would be higher and more volatile. Liquidity would […]
Many sovereign bonds trade at a premium for being safe assets that retain their value even in deep recessions. This premium, or ‘convenience yield’, allows governments to borrow cheaply. This column argues that sovereign bonds remain particularly valuable in comparison to other assets, such as stocks, only in disinflationary demand recessions. In inflationary supply recessions, […]
Artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping the financial sector. This column introduces the seventh report in The Future of Banking series, which examines the fundamental transformations induced by AI and the policy challenges it raises. It focuses on three main themes: the use of AI in financial intermediation, central banking and policy, and regulatory challenges; the […]
Electric vehicles (EVs) have grown from a niche technology to a mainstream industry in the space of a little over a decade. EV deployment is crucial to meet climate targets and is transforming the automotive industry – a cornerstone of manufacturing in both the United States and Europe. Unlike China, the EU and US are […]
