There is general agreement that a currency’s safe-haven status can be gauged by its response to changes in financial volatility. This column documents how, in the months following the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” announcement, the dollar switched from rising during periods of market volatility to falling, and thus appeared to switch from a safe-haven to […]
Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a critical role in the world economy. Global FDI flows averaged almost $2 trillion per year during the past decade, up to one-half of which have been directed to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in recent years (figure 1.A). FDI inflows are an important source of private capital, especially for […]
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s latest forecasts show a cumulative deficit of $22.7trln from fiscal 2026 to 2035. U.S. federal budget deficits will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than projected in January by the Congressional Budget Office as a result of tax and spending legislation and tariffs, a budget […]
Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of […]
What makes a country a great place to start and grow a business? Among low-income economies across the world, only 29% have a single centralized website dedicated to providing regulatory information pertaining to international trade. In high-income economies, the same number stands at 67% . The World Bank’s new Business Ready (B-READY) project shines a light on this […]
International trade plays a complex role in shaping environmental outcomes. A new World Bank paper, “Trade’s Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution,” prepared for the forthcoming flagship report “Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet,” brings a new perspective to the debate by revealing an important insight: while global trade has contributed […]
A key question in the context of a trade war is whether the burden of tariffs falls on foreign exporters or domestic importers. This column uses a firm-to-firm trade model with search frictions and French export data to study how cost shocks affect buying firms. It finds that while some buyers pay nothing, others face […]
The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy experiment in Argentina in 2023. Amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded its currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China. The share of imports from China invoiced in […]
While tariffs have been the most visible policy tool during the US-China trade war, anecdotal evidence points to the use of Chinese state-owned enterprises as a hidden lever of protectionism. This column presents new systematic evidence showing that state-owned enterprises drove a significant share of the decline in US exports to China in 2018–2019, especially […]
There is growing recognition that the specific characteristics of services sectors and services trade have important environmental implications. For example, services trade can foster technological advancements and solutions that reduce the environmental footprint of economic activities. This column presents empirical evidence that reducing policy restrictions on imported services inputs lowers the emissions intensity of downstream […]
