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Economy Featured Finance News World

A Three-Pronged Strategy Can Help Developing Economies Attract FDI and Unlock its Full Potential

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a critical role in the world economy. Global FDI flows averaged almost $2 trillion per year during the past decade, up to one-half of which have been directed to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in recent years (figure 1.A). FDI inflows are an important source of private capital, especially for […]

Finance Banking Economy Featured News

US budget deficit forecast $1trln higher over next decade, watchdog says

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s latest forecasts show a cumulative deficit of $22.7trln from fiscal 2026 to 2035. U.S. federal budget deficits will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade than projected in January by the Congressional Budget Office as a result of tax and spending legislation and tariffs, a budget […]

Climate Environment Featured Innovation Productivity

Adjusting productivity for carbon emissions: A new perspective on the growth slowdown

Productivity growth has been lacklustre over the past 20 years in most advanced economies. But standard productivity measures ignore the progress that some economies have made in terms of lowering carbon dioxide emissions. This column proposes a method to embed those efficiency gains into existing productivity measures. For traditional (small) estimates of the cost of […]

Development Business Featured World

Measuring what matters for business: The new B-READY data in the World Development Indicators

What makes a country a great place to start and grow a business? Among low-income economies across the world, only 29% have a single centralized website dedicated to providing regulatory information pertaining to international trade. In high-income economies, the same number stands at 67% . The World Bank’s new Business Ready (B-READY) project shines a light on this […]

trade Business Economy Featured Finance

Trade’s emissions paradox: What it means for developing countries

International trade plays a complex role in shaping environmental outcomes. A new World Bank paper, “Trade’s Emissions Paradox: Cutting Greenhouse Gases, Raising Air Pollution,” prepared for the forthcoming flagship report “Reboot Development: The Economics of a Livable Planet,” brings a new perspective to the debate by revealing an important insight: while global trade has contributed […]

trade Banking Economy Featured Finance

Transmission of foreign shocks to import prices in firm-to-firm networks

A key question in the context of a trade war is whether the burden of tariffs falls on foreign exporters or domestic importers. This column uses a firm-to-firm trade model with search frictions and French export data to study how cost shocks affect buying firms. It finds that while some buyers pay nothing, others face […]

trade Featured Finance World

The battle for trade currency dominance: The dollar vs the renminbi in Argentina

The US dollar has traditionally dominated the invoicing of international trade. But could other currencies one day replace it? This column examines a unique policy experiment in Argentina in 2023. Amid a severe dollar shortage, Argentina expanded its currency swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China. The share of imports from China invoiced in […]

trade Economy Featured News World

Beyond tariffs: Chinese state-owned enterprises in the trade war

While tariffs have been the most visible policy tool during the US-China trade war, anecdotal evidence points to the use of Chinese state-owned enterprises as a hidden lever of protectionism. This column presents new systematic evidence showing that state-owned enterprises drove a significant share of the decline in US exports to China in 2018–2019, especially […]

trade Climate Environment Featured News

Services trade and environmental sustainability

There is growing recognition that the specific characteristics of services sectors and services trade have important environmental implications. For example, services trade can foster technological advancements and solutions that reduce the environmental footprint of economic activities. This column presents empirical evidence that reducing policy restrictions on imported services inputs lowers the emissions intensity of downstream […]

trade Featured News World

A new modelling approach for evaluating the Trump tariffs

There is currently much discussion about President Trump’s tariffs, the US trade deficit, and its causes and impacts, but little in the way of economic modelling to inform the discussion. This column uses a theoretical model of international trade to demonstrate that the US trade deficit might be regarded as the consequence of rational market […]