Gold leaps above $4,100 on Fed rate cut hopes, US-China trade tension

Fed Chair Powell to address NABE annual meeting on Tuesday.

Gold prices jumped to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand following renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,132.89 per ounce as of 0950 GMT, after hitting a record high of $4,179.48 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $4,149.20.

Gold has surged 57% so far this year and breached the key $4,100 mark for the first time on Monday, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, rate-cut expectations, strong central bank buying and robust exchange-traded fund inflows.

“Renewed concerns over a global trade war have pushed gold above the psychological $4,100 level,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money.

“The next leg up towards mid-$4k territory may require dovish surprises out of this month’s FOMC meeting.”

U.S. President Donald Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday.

While trade negotiations between the U.S. and China intensify, the two nations will start charging port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil.

Analysts at the Bank of America and Societe Generale expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026.

Spot silver fell 2.5% to $51.01, after hitting a record high of $53.60, buoyed by the same factors supporting gold and spot market tightness.

“The short squeeze in London has been the obvious catalyst for silver’s new record high, even as bulls were already benefiting from the broader safe haven play,” Tan said.

Investors now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the NABE annual meeting on Tuesday for further insight into the Fed’s monetary policy path.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve chief Anna Paulson said that rising risks to the labour market have bolstered the case for further U.S. rate cuts.

Non-yielding gold tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Platinum rose 0.6% to $1,655.60 and palladium gained 1.3% to $1,493.52.

© ZAWYA