One global shock, many inflation paths: Inflation persistence after the Great Moderation
The post-COVID inflation surge was global, but inflation persistence was not. This column argues that the key difference lies in how strongly external shocks fed
Market-implied inflation expectations during the Iran shock
Real-time assessments of inflation expectations can be valuable for assessing the inflation outlook. This column decomposes inflation swaps for the US, UK, and euro area
The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Beyond borders, within societies: Inequality and the global transmission of US monetary policy
Understanding how US monetary policy is transmitted to foreign economies has long been a challenge for policymakers and researchers. This column shows that the domestic
When energy shocks bite harder: Non-linear inflation dynamics
The conflict in the Middle East has exposed the euro area to higher energy prices. Using a flexible empirical framework, this column shows that inflation
Mapping the household-level transmission of monetary policy
The monetary tightening that followed the post-pandemic inflation episode has revived long-standing debates about how monetary policy affects households. This column uses a survey of
Macroeconomic policies for AI
While some observers argue that artificial intelligence may lead to large productivity gains, there are also concerns that it may lead to technological unemployment and
Gold falls as fading Middle East peace hopes lift dollar, oil
Trump to visit China this week, to discuss Iran with Xi. Gold fell from a three-week high hit earlier on Tuesday, as slim hopes of
Identifying monetary policy shocks in newspapers using GPT
Identifying the shock component of monetary policy is a precondition for measuring its causal effects. This column proposes a novel approach: using large language models,
Central bank digital currency, the future of money, and politics
A number of concerns have been raised regarding retail central bank digital currency. These range from competition and innovation, privacy issues, and monetary sovereignty. This
