When central banks over-deliver, markets listen differently
Financial markets pay close attention to monetary policy, and surprise policy decisions can strongly affect asset prices and the real economy. This column shows that
The impact of trade wars on firms in third countries
Bilateral trade shocks may reallocate demand and competition across countries, creating spillovers for firms in bystander countries. To study how firms respond to trade shocks
One global shock, many inflation paths: Inflation persistence after the Great Moderation
The post-COVID inflation surge was global, but inflation persistence was not. This column argues that the key difference lies in how strongly external shocks fed
Cheaper machines, costlier buildings: The drag on long-run growth
The steady decline in the relative price of equipment has long been seen as a primary engine of long-run growth. This column documents a quieter,
Dollar rises but still not far from pre-war levels, data awaited
Given the likelihood of elevated inflation readings, the CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar extended gains for a second straight session
AI and the distribution of income between capital and labour
The swift rise of artificial intelligence is raising fundamental concerns about the future of work. This column uses data from 238 regions across 21 European
Banking on nonbanks
Nonbank financial institutions play a central role in global credit markets, raising concerns about regulatory arbitrage, financial stability, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policy. While
Productivity, firm size, and why distortions hurt developing economies
In many developing countries, productive firms remain too small, while less productive firms are too large. Such misallocation contributes to losses in aggregate productivity. This
FDI and growth in the age of global value chains
Existing evidence indicates that foreign direct investment promotes growth only when host economies have the human capital and deep financial markets to absorb spillovers. This
Drivers of international primary income balances
Financial globalisation since the 1990s has led to large holdings of cross-border assets and liabilities in many countries. This column analyses the yields on assets
