Predicting financial market stress is a significant challenge, as traditional models often fail to capture complex and nonlinear dynamics.
The ECB kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Barclays revised its forecast
Euro zone factory activity stagnated as new orders flatlined and headcount fell. The world’s big manufacturing economies struggled to
The yen was at 154.1 per dollar, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials. The
Investors have their eyes on other news, including ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most
Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past
Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines
Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase
In 2017 I published (ungated) a review of active labor market programs in developing countries, in which I concluded that the
Predicting financial market stress is a significant challenge, as traditional models often fail to capture complex and nonlinear dynamics.
The ECB kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Barclays revised its forecast
Euro zone factory activity stagnated as new orders flatlined and headcount fell. The world’s big manufacturing economies struggled to
The yen was at 154.1 per dollar, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials. The
Investors have their eyes on other news, including ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most
Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past
Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines
Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase
In 2017 I published (ungated) a review of active labor market programs in developing countries, in which I concluded that the
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