A recent sustained growth deceleration in China raises the question of whether the country has fallen into a ‘middle-income trap’. This column argues that China cannot continute to rely on capital accumulation for sustaining growth, while the country’s ongoing demographic transition also implies that there are limits to a continued positive contribution of labour to […]
Do people distinguish between income and wealth, how they are distributed, and how they should be taxed? This column reports results of a survey-experiment in the Netherlands to study people’s beliefs about the distribution of income and wealth and how these beliefs relate to their policy preferences. It shows that people make very little distinction […]
Asset pricing anomalies documented in the post-WWII period are commonly used to design investment strategies. This column uses historical data over 1900-1925 from nine equity markets to provide an out-of-sample test for these asset pricing anomalies. It finds strong evidence of cross-sectional momentum (difference in returns of past winners and past losers), which is driven […]
Open banking enables customers to share their transaction data with other financial service providers – including incumbent banks or new fintechs – fostering competition, spurring innovation, and promoting inclusion. This column argues that open banking is unambiguously good for competition in the financial sector, but that it can impose costs on privacy conscious consumers. Evidence […]
In 2021, the US temporarily expanded the Child Tax Credit, a programme intended to support the income of families with children. This column shows that the US was comparatively less successful in reducing child poverty through its redistribution system prior to the reform. The temporary expansion brought it more in line with programmes in other […]
Equity markets are already expecting an increase in volatility before the US presidential election. This uncertainty may add to the already high macroeconomic uncertainty. This column analyses the economic implications of changes in US election odds through the lens of financial markets. A higher likelihood of Trump’s election (1) increases the volatility in the US […]
Both Black and white infant mortality rates in the US have fallen in the past century, but racial inequality in infant mortality is worse. This column studies the impact of a large-scale hospital modernisation programme in the 20th century on healthcare capacity and mortality outcomes, with a focus on racial inequality. Upgrading healthcare reduced infant […]
In 2019, the UK government became the first major economy to pass laws with a target of net zero by 2050. The May 2024 CfM survey asked its UK panel to assess the impact of the measures taken to meet this net zero commitment on the UK’s long-term economic growth, and to choose the most […]
In recent decades, LGBTQ+ communities have received increased attention from policymakers. But the issues facing intersex people – whose sex characteristics do not fit binary notions of male and female – remain largely invisible. This column discusses the challenges faced by intersex communities in Mexico, where a nationally representative dataset reveals that approximately 1.6% of […]
Disruptions from conflicts, climate change, and the pandemic have raised the question of whether today’s supply chains and transportation networks more resilient or vulnerable. This column examines the evolution of transport use and costs over the last 55 years, and its implications for international trade and supply chains. Goods are now transported by more countries […]
