Commodity prices played a critical role in the surge and decline of inflation since 2020. This column studies the relationship between commodity prices, consumer prices, and the business cycle for 15 economies in the years prior to World War I. It finds a strong positive relationship between inflation and commodity prices, even when focusing on […]
Governments across the world are implementing policies to address the threat from climate change and to transition their economies to net zero. The changes will increasingly have macroeconomic consequences over horizons relevant for monetary policymakers. This column introduces a framework to assist central banks to understand the macroeconomic effects of the green transition and describes […]
The economic confrontation between the US and China has been transforming global trade, foreign direct investment, and global value chains, particularly in technology-intensive industries. This column uses evidence from Japanese micro-level data to examine the effect of US export controls on the exit of multinational enterprises from China. The findings suggest that the increased intensity […]
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented policy interventions in the US that provided nearly $3 trillion to support struggling families. This column examines the short-term effects of these interventions on child poverty and finds quite different trends for income poverty and consumption poverty. While disposable income poverty declined dramatically in 2021, consumption poverty fell more gradually, […]
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly warming our planet, with potentially severe economic, social, and health consequences. Conventional estimates of climate damages suggest that while coordinated global efforts are desirable, unilateral action is rarely cost-effective due to a classic free-rider problem. Why should a country bear the costs of reducing emissions when the benefits are […]
Since 2016, there has been a surge of commitments for net zero emissions by large firms. This column analyses whether these corporate commitments can have a real impact on decarbonisation. It shows that large firms can and should use climate commitments to accelerate the green transition when government climate policies are constrained. Private initiatives work […]
After a long period of rapid globalisation, the openness of the world economy has stagnated since 2008, largely owing to a halt in intermediate goods trade between developed and developing countries. This column argues that increased uncertainty, coupled with ever more capable automation technologies, has likely contributed to this trend break. Globalisation has come to […]
President Trump accounted tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China on the basis of a “national emergency” in the form of the “extraordinary threat” posed to the US by “illegal aliens and drugs, including fentanyl”. This column examines the legal justification for the president’s actions and concludes that that (1) under US law, Trump’s […]
Under-representation in academia raises concerns regarding equality of opportunity as well as efficiency. This column explores socioeconomic backgrounds in US academia between 1900 and 1970. Individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds are starkly and persistently under-represented in academia, more so than in other high-skilled occupations. And despite tending to publish more innovative work, scientists with a […]
Different countries take different approaches to Social Protection (SP) delivery systems. Some countries start by establishing a social registry – a system that is capable of supporting the outreach, intake and registration of its population and then assessing their needs and conditions. Other countries first build a beneficiary registry and then try to integrate both systems. A third option […]
