Bank runs are notoriously difficult to measure systematically. This column constructs two novel, cross-country databases on bank run events in 184 countries over 1800-2023 and bank sector outstanding deposits. It shows that the costs of systemic bank runs are substantial – real GDP is on average 9% below its pre-run trend. These output losses are […]
The shift from fossil fuels to renewable technologies may render the global economy less oil-intensive and more metals-intensive. This column examines how metals supply shocks propagate through production networks and impact inflation. It finds that copper supply shocks have significant and persistent effects on both headline and core inflation. In comparison, oil supply shocks mostly […]
Demand for green power in the United States will grow regardless of who is the country’s next president, major players in the wind energy sector Vestas and Orsted said on Tuesday. Offshore wind developers have seen profits shrink in recent years due to rising raw material costs, high interest rates, inadequate grid connections, supply chain bottlenecks, and Chinese […]
Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to slash crude prices for Asian buyers in January to the lowest in years, largely tracking a slump in Middle East benchmark prices last month, traders said on Monday. The January official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light may fall by 70 to 90 cents a barrel […]
Just days before UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel set his sight on a takeover target in Italy, more evidence emerged of fierce resistance to his interest in German flagship lender Commerzbank. A group of customers from Germany’s corporate elite pleaded with Commerzbank’s CEO to reject a deal, according to people involved in the meeting at the […]
Singapore’s central bank said on Monday it fined U.S. lender JPMorgan Chase S$2.4 million ($1.79 million) for failing to prevent and detect misconduct committed by its relationship managers. The Monetary Authority of Singapore JPMorgan’s relationship managers provided inaccurate or incomplete information to clients in 24 instances of over-the-counter bond transactions, charging them spreads above the agreed […]
Negative economic shocks can cause waves of investor pessimism about the resilience of banks, which in turn generate additional adverse macroeconomic effects. This column introduces the notion of pessimism in a real business cycle model. The possibility of waves of pessimism generates countercyclical demand from banks for liquid assets, such as bank reserves. Applying the […]
Immigration is one of today’s most controversial policy issues. A recurrent concern is that immigrants are taking the jobs of native workers, leading many governments to consider restrictions and even deportations. This column examines the impact of the 1882 Chinese Exclusion Act, which effectively shut down Chinese immigration to the US for more than 80 […]
There is a lively debate around the long-run performance of Italy since the Middle Ages. This column introduces new estimates of Italy’s GDP per capita from 1300 to 1861. The estimates are constructed using the demand-side approach and are based on nearly 95,000 price/wage observations from almost 200 locations. The estimates provide new insights on […]
The United Nations’ top court next week begins hearings on the legal obligation of countries to fight climate change and the consequences for states of contributing to global warming, the outcome of which could influence litigation worldwide. While the advisory opinions of the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) are non-binding, they are legally and politically […]
