The IMF this week edged up its 2025 global growth forecast given a more benign impact from tariffs. Global public debt is projected to rise above 100% of gross domestic product by 2029, reaching its highest level since 1948 and continuing to climb, the IMF said on Wednesday, urging countries to build up buffers to […]
In July, the European Commission fired the starting gun on the negotiations of the next Multiannual Financial Framework – the EU’s budget. Against a tough geopolitical and economic backdrop, the call to bolster Brussels’ public finances clashes with the reluctance of some member states to spend more centrally. This column outlines a possible way forward […]
Bank lending is a key channel through which monetary policy affects the real economy. This column explores how the effects of monetary policy on credit are shaped by bank specialisation in borrower industries and size categories. Analysing granular loan data reveals that such specialisation is widespread among euro area banks. Moreover, higher specialisation is typically […]
A race is raging among global powers to secure access to critical minerals to power the simultaneous energy and digital transitions the world is experiencing. The extraordinary growth in demand for critical minerals is putting upward pressure on prices and stimulating new critical mineral discoveries all around the world. However, in developing countries, this new […]
WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4%. Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 […]
Trade in both goods and services recorded solid gains compared with the first quarter. Global trade expanded by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025, despite volatility, policy shifts and persistent geopolitical tensions. Momentum remained strong into the third quarter, even as growth patterns varied across regions and sectors, according to UNCTAD Global […]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs accounted for perhaps 30-40 basis points of the latest core inflation reading of 2.9% but the effect should be “relatively short-lived”. U.S. companies and consumers are bearing the brunt of the country’s new import tariffs, early indications show, contradicting assertions by President Donald Trump and complicating the Federal Reserve’s […]
Aussie slides as investors flock to safe-havens, yen strenghtens. The Australian dollar tumbled on Tuesday, while the safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen strengthened as renewed signs of strains in U.S.-China trade relations dented risk sentiment and left investors ducking for cover. Trade and tariffs have been the main focus since dramatic market moves on […]
Fed Chair Powell to address NABE annual meeting on Tuesday. Gold prices jumped to a record high above $4,100 on Tuesday, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand following renewed trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,132.89 per ounce […]
The starkly different paths of economic and institutional development followed by China and the West is often attributed largely to the Industrial Revolution. This column argues that institutions and culture played a key role in setting Europe and China on divergent paths well before the onset of the Industrial Revolution, but the role they played […]
