The ‘green growth’ debate is taking place in an oversimplified setting, largely disregarding the innovation factor. Technologies to mitigate climate change are being treated as given, or as emerging spontaneously, ignoring the fact that the portfolio of technologies available tomorrow depends on what is done today. This can easily lead to misguided preferences, either for […]
The world is moving into a period of entrenched manufacturing overcapacity, threatening deflation and stagnant growth. Over the past two decades, China has emerged as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. By offering goods at significantly lower prices than its competitors, China has captured a huge share of the global market. However, this flood of inexpensive goods […]
Export booms can boost formal job growth and lead to greener employment. In Brazil, between 2000 and 2020, municipalities more exposed to exports showed higher employment growth. A 1% increase in exports led to a 0.4% increase in formal jobs three years later. While environmentally risky jobs tend to rise more rapidly in the short run, […]
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association with a weaker dollar, appears to be the right way for the US to improve its trade balance. In addition, the US should pursue an outcome in which there is […]
Since 2013, synthetic opioid overdoses have surged in the US, claiming over 70,000 lives each year. This crisis has had international spillovers, reigniting drug-related violence in Mexico, where a new wave of cartel warfare erupted after 2013. This column shows that the geography of this second wave is closely tied to fentanyl trafficking routes. Exploiting […]
Despite an abundance of low-skill labour, India has never experienced the kind of takeoff in low-skill, labour-intensive manufacturing seen in other countries at comparable income levels. This column argues that a key reason for this underperformance is the exit barriers faced by Indian manufacturing firms which entry of new firms, prolong the survival of low-productive […]
Global export competitiveness is rapidly evolving. This column presents a novel granular decomposition of export market share changes into demand and supply effects. Applied to Germany, it reveals steep supply‑side losses in medium-/high‑tech and energy‑intensive goods driving recent market share declines. Meanwhile, China continues to gain competitiveness in medium-/high‑tech exports, even as adverse demand pulls […]
The euro was up less than 0.1% at $1.1652, while sterling was flat at $1.3462. The U.S. dollar was little changed on Monday before Tuesday’s deadline for Washington and Beijing to strike a tariff deal and a key U.S. inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs next month. The […]
China’s yuan was flat at 7.195 per dollar in offshore trading. Currency markets were in a holding pattern on Tuesday, with traders’ reluctance to make large bets ahead of U.S. inflation data – important for Federal Reserve policy expectations – capping moves after UK jobs data and an Australian rate cut. A moderate reading on […]
Higher soyoil imports will lift India’s total edible oil imports in the year by 1% to 16.1 million tons, dealers estimated. India’s soyoil imports are poised to surge 60% year-on-year to a record high in 2024/25, as refiners boost purchases due to cheaper prices compared with rival palm oil, shipments of which are set to […]
