The 2025 US tariff increases varied significantly across most economies. This column argues that the economic impact of these tariffs will also not be uniform. Using a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model, it estimates that US real GDP will decrease by around 4%, and that larger adverse impacts are expected in Canada and Mexico. […]
Despite years of regional integration efforts, African countries trade more with Europe and Asia than with each other. This column estimates the gap between the current and potential trade efficiency of 45 African exporting countries and their 43 trading partners over the period 1996 to 2020. The findings highlight the existence of untapped trade potential […]
Household saving and labour supply are shaped by many risks – wages, marriage, health, longevity – as well as bequest motives. This column develops a model that tracks individuals from age 26 through to retirement and death to show how these risks interact to drive economic behaviour. The findings highlight that incorporating risk, and how […]
Sunday morning store closures impose significant costs on consumers, but supporters of such ‘blue laws’ argue these rules protect workers, family life, and small retailers. This column uses GPS data to study the effects of lifting North Dakota’s strict Sunday morning retail ban in 2019. After the repeal, Sunday morning visits to Walmart stores rose […]
Citizens need clear, accessible information to make informed decisions, but today’s digital landscape can be overwhelming. This column tests whether an AI chatbot can ease election information overload for 1,500 Californian voters. The chatbot reduces the voters’ perception of the effort needed to get more information, increases voter engagement, and improves the accuracy of their […]
GDP growth seen at 3.3% in 2025. Turkey’s medium-term economic programme forecasts inflation to hit 28.5% in 2025 and 16% in 2026, before reaching single digits from 2027, according to a text of the economic roadmap published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. The programme, which sets the government’s economic roadmap for the next three […]
For the week, Brent is down 2.2% and WTI down 1.3%. Oil extended its decline into a third session on Friday, heading for a weekly loss for the first time in three weeks as expectations grow of higher supply and a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories added to demand concerns. Reuters reported on Wednesday […]
The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. The dollar held steady on Wednesday ahead of U.S. inflation data this week that could help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, while a fraught geopolitical backdrop underpinned the likes of the Swiss franc. Employment […]
ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June. Gold prices hovered near an all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this month, while market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the […]
The World Bank has long recognized the critical importance of agricultural extension services – ranging from training and data to technology transfer – which make up the second-largest share of its agriculture portfolio. Yet farmers have often been slow to adopt the very methods and tools these services are designed to deliver—limiting their own productivity and […]
