Geopolitical risk is a key concern for the euro area, yet most available measures reflect a US perspective. This column introduces a new indicator of geopolitical risk tailored specifically to the euro area, based entirely on newspaper coverage from local sources. The authors show that shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary effects, […]
Amid geopolitical shocks, the EU is revisiting its industrial strategy. However, traditional metrics often paint a misleading picture of Europe’s underlying strength. This column uses a new approach to measure the EU’s relative state of technology in different sectors. It shows that although EU manufacturing broadly outperforms the rest of the world in productivity terms, […]
In 2018 and 2019, the US administration hiked tariffs on imports from China. This column shows that imports from Mexico partly filled the gap, leading to an export and employment surge in Mexico. Using highly disaggregated firm-level data on Mexican exports, combined with detailed employer-employee data, the authors find that US tariffs against China resulted […]
Despite its small size, Lebanon’s chronic crises send financial shockwaves across the Middle East and North Africa. This column uses a Twitter-based index of economic policy uncertainty to track Lebanon’s instability and shows that it transmits financial shocks to seven MENA economies, with spillovers are strongest for Egypt, Jordan, and smaller Gulf states. Real-time policy […]
Investors and policymakers increasingly rely on verbal guidance rather than policy moves. This column examines whether the emotional sentiment of the chair of the Federal Reserve’s voice in press conferences affects the probability of a sudden, significant drop in bank stock prices. A more positive vocal tone by the Fed chair reduces the risk of […]
As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and political conditions to construct the full distribution of potential future debt outcomes. The framework shows that debt risks are high, rising, and tilted to the upside. Debt levels are projected […]
In the quest to promote women’s rights and opportunities and reduce intimate-partner violence (IPV), well-intentioned programs can sometimes yield results opposed to their goal. A recent paper sheds light on the surprising and concerning outcome of an IPV prevention program in Rwanda. The program, designed to improve communication and promote gender equality among couples, unexpectedly led to a […]
As social media platforms become ever more ubiquitous, policymakers are grappling with how to counter their effects on political attitudes and electoral outcomes, addiction and mental health, misinformation and toxic content. This column suggests practical ways that academic researchers can help guide the design of government regulations aiming to address these issues. The authors explain […]
Electric vehicles (EVs) have grown from a niche technology to a mainstream industry in the space of a little over a decade. EV deployment is crucial to meet climate targets and is transforming the automotive industry – a cornerstone of manufacturing in both the United States and Europe. Unlike China, the EU and US are […]
There has been renewed interest in industrial policy as a tool to reshape the structure of economic activity, but little evidence exists on the successful design and implementation of these policies. This column examines the transformation of East Germany’s state-controlled economy after the collapse of socialism and draws valuable lessons from the experience for contemporary […]
