COVID-19 hit low-income exporters hard, exposing risks from weak diversification and straining trade, supply systems and financial stability. The COVID-19 pandemic sent shockwaves through global supply chains as borders closed, lockdowns went into effect and demand plummeted. This shock was felt particularly by low and lower-middle income countries with economies reliant on a limited set […]
The current US administration’s willingness to weaponise trade makes clear that transatlantic economic relations have become entirely transactional. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, argues that Europe must respond to US tariffs, which target weakness, with economic strength: faster productivity growth, cheaper energy, a genuine […]
China’s growth model has continued to rely on expanding industrial capacity and exporting to the world, rather than on domestic consumption. This has lead to a significant increase in China’s global share of manufactured exports and has raised concerns about overcapacity (Figure 1; Xu, 2025). The imbalance arises because China’s expanding production capacity is outpacing […]
The new US administration has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking more complicated both because of the elevated uncertainty regarding administration policies and because of the extraordinary political pressure put on the central bank. This column describes how, thus far, the Fed has followed a cautious path for policy, waiting for more information on policy […]
OPEC+ oil producers have used high summer demand to launch their first output increases in three years, but those targets have proved difficult to hit, leaving the market surprisingly tight. On paper, the world’s largest group of oil-producing countries should be pumping an extra 2.5 million barrels of oil a day in September versus March, […]
Violence against women intensified under COVID-19 lockdowns. The most rigorous literature evaluating the impact of stay-at-home measures, job loss, and social isolation on various forms of violence against women, including femicide highlights two effective policy responses: specialised support services and emergency cash transfers. Drawing on recent findings from Brazil and broader international evidence, this column […]
An estimated 254 million people (approximately 3 in 100) lived with chronic hepatitis B in 2022, a virus which causes inflammation of the liver and can lead to severe liver disease and liver cancer. Despite the disease being preventable and treatable, an estimated 1.1 million people died from hepatitis B in 2022 alone. Indonesia (17.5 million), Nigeria […]
As the world continues to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, countries face new and unexpected challenges. Elevated debt levels, persistent inflation, and weakened growth prospects have created a perfect storm of financial pressure. For many nations, this has meant shrinking the budgets in vital sectors like health, education, and the environment. In […]
Population ageing makes it harder for governments to finance programmes like public pensions and long-term care. But policy responses, such as tightening programme eligibility and benefit levels or raising taxes on current workers, often prove unpopular. This column presents findings from the latest wave of the OECD’s Risks that Matter survey, which takes stock of […]
The Phillips curve describes the relationship between inflation and real economic activity over the business cycle. This column challenges the notion that the Phillips curve is flat. Using pre-pandemic Belgian micro data, it shows that inflation responds to variations in production costs but is insensitive to variations in output. The flatness of the conventional output-gap […]
