The macroeconomic impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility: An analysis for Italy, Spain, and Greece
The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility was launched to support post-Covid recovery while accelerating structural transformation through investment and reform. This column provides a preliminary
Trapped at home: Climate stress is more likely to immobilise the poor than to move them
Climate-driven displacement is widely expected to push millions across international borders. Drawing on monthly bilateral flows for 127 developing-country origins, this column finds the reverse:
How higher pensions shape work after retirement: Lessons from Germany’s Earned Income Pension Credit
Can governments raise pensions for low-income retirees without discouraging them from working? Drawing on Germany’s Earned Income Pension Credit, this column finds that higher pension
What we lose when women do not get tenure: Evidence from a natural experiment
Women remain underrepresented in the upper ranks of academia, but evidence on the mechanisms behind this has been scarce. This column exploits a change in
Literature support and the capabilities of autonomous research agents
A central weakness of modern machine-learning systems is that performance tends to deteriorate outside the support of the training distribution. This column uses a tournament-style
Financial stability in the age of artificial intelligence: The role of algorithmic architecture
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming financial decision-making. This column explores the implications for financial stability using simulation-based experiments on two different AI architectures. Q-learning algorithms,
Peering beyond the veil of aggregate bank lending rate dynamics: Insights into credit-level pricing and composition effects
During the recent tightening and easing cycle, the aggregate bank lending rate to firms in the euro area increased by less than the rise in
Why information campaigns may backfire: Voter heterogeneity and network effects
Political information campaigns that perform well in focus groups and pilot studies may backfire when applied at scale. This column uses a field experiment in
Monetary policy transmission through cross-selling banks
When central banks raise or lower policy rates, banks typically pass these changes through only incompletely to the interest rates they pay on customer deposits.
Insuring labour income shocks: The role of the dynasty
Beyond government and market-based insurance, the family remains a key institution for coping with economic risk. This column uses detailed Norwegian data to study how
