Europe’s productivity is more dynamic than aggregate statistics suggest
Aggregate productivity growth in Europe has disappointed over the last two decades, fuelling concerns about competitiveness. This column argues that firm-level evidence points to a
Industrial policy in complementary markets: Lessons from India’s 4G rollout
Governments increasingly use protection and targeted subsidies to promote domestic firms. These policies are usually evaluated in the market they target. This column uses India’s
Firms slice up global production to protect their knowhow
Imitation is a first-order concern for enterprises operating global production processes. Firms routinely source knowledge-intensive inputs from many countries, including those with weak intellectual property
Quantifying the China discourse
Policy narratives in the US on China have undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years. This column draws on various kinds of public records and
The exorbitant privilege of the periodic table
Trade in critical metals essential for electrification has become centred on China over the last three decades. This column introduces a new framework in which
AI feedback loops and the conditions for explosive growth
If frontier AI models can be used to develop their next models, this may lead to an ‘intelligence explosion’ and give a large boost to
Japan’s productivity transformation: From within-firm stagnation to market-driven reallocation
Discussions on Japan’s ‘lost decades’ have long focused on sluggish demand and the survival of ‘zombie’ firms. However, new evidence from microdata suggests a fundamental
When aging meets digital & AI: Closing the silver digital divide for an aging world
We are living through two megatrends humanity has never seen before. The first is aging. Populations over 65 are growing not just in developed countries,
Carbon risk in loan pricing: Commitment channels and real effects
Transition risks related to climate change are increasingly recognised in equity and bond markets. This column uses syndicated loan tranches issued to US firms to
Baby busts and GDP booms: Demographic change and the macroeconomy
Globally declining birth rates have, over the last seven decades, slowed population growth and raised average ages. This column argues that despite widespread economic pessimism,
