Inflation targeting has emerged as the dominant monetary policy framework in advanced and emerging market economies. This column discusses three main challenges faced by inflation-targeting central banks: the recent high-inflation episode and increasingly frequent supply-side disruptions; expanding central bank balance sheets since the Global Crisis; and risks to central bank independence. The authors argue that […]
There is growing recognition that the specific characteristics of services sectors and services trade have important environmental implications. For example, services trade can foster technological advancements and solutions that reduce the environmental footprint of economic activities. This column presents empirical evidence that reducing policy restrictions on imported services inputs lowers the emissions intensity of downstream […]
Policy debates around climate change frequently focus on the trade-off between the near-term costs of reducing carbon emissions and the long-term benefits of mitigating climate change. William Nordhaus highlighted the importance of aggregate productivity losses from climate change in shaping this intertemporal trade-off, but estimating these losses is challenging. This column examines both the direct […]
Understanding how households interpret macroeconomic policy is vital to the effectiveness of central banks. This column demonstrates that the reactions of individual households frequently contradict standard theoretical playbooks. Using euro area survey data, the authors find that households interpret policy through a lens shaped by recent crises – such as the energy shock following Russia’s […]
Banking crises have repeatedly inflicted serious damage on the real economy. This column discusses a new proposal for a public liquidity backstop in Switzerland to support the orderly resolution of systemically important banks in times of crisis. While such a backstop can deliver substantial ex-post benefits, it could also encourage excessive leverage and risk ex-ante […]
Standard models of asset pricing assume that risky (safe) financial assets have higher returns because they have higher (lower) exposures to systematic risk factors. They also typically assume that these exposures to risk and the degree of co-movement across assets are the same in good times and bad times. Yet, there is ample evidence that […]
Trade and industrial policies designed to support domestic industries can unintentionally kindle technological progress abroad. This column examines the case of rare earth elements – a group of metals essential to producing batteries, lasers, and other high-tech components. These elements are not only critical to manufacturing at the knowledge frontier; they also have a low […]
The growing footprint of nonbank financial institutions in corporate credit markets raises important – but often overlooked – questions about how monetary and macroprudential policies shape credit allocation to the real economy. Using global syndicated loan data, this column shows that nonbanks act as shock absorbers, shielding nonfinancial firms from tightening in both monetary and […]
In 2025, the US government announced a series of tariff increases targeting major trading partners, including Canada, China, and Mexico. This column estimates the economic consequences of these proposed tariffs to the US and globally. According to this model, real wages in the US decline by 1.4% in 2028 and GDP falls by approximately 1%, […]
