The impact of trade wars on firms in third countries
Bilateral trade shocks may reallocate demand and competition across countries, creating spillovers for firms in bystander countries. To study how firms respond to trade shocks
The design and effect of tariff retaliation: Evidence from the EU
As global trade policy becomes increasingly protectionist, the threat of tariff retaliation looms large. This column analyses how the EU’s 2018 response to US steel
Fiscal rules compliance and sovereign borrowing costs: Some evidence from the euro area
Governments with well-designed fiscal rules generally enjoy lower yields but less is known about whether investors price compliance with these rules. Using a panel of
The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Global trade linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI
Productivity gains from AI are expected to be significant, but how international trade shapes the cross-country distribution of these gains remains an open question. This
A plan to revitalise the World Trade Organization
Saving the WTO will require EU-led alliances, better subsidy disciplines and new plurilateral routes, even if some initiatives sit outside the WTO. The World Trade
A smarter approach to electricity rationing
Ukraine’s grid operators have primarily relied on rotational outages to manage power scarcity, but this effectively functions as regressive tax on those least equipped to
When the ruler is made of the thing it measures: Multi-model evidence on AI occupational exposure scores
To estimate how AI is reshaping work, it is now standard to ask AI itself to score how exposed each occupation is. The instrument is
Defragmenting European Union climate policy
Simplification without carbon price convergence risks deeper fragmentation, higher costs and weaker credibility for the EU’s climate target. Executive summary There is broad agreement that the European
Europe’s public finances in a warming world
Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances
