The impact of geopolitical risk on the euro area economy: Past experience and future prospects
Geopolitical risk has become a key driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. This column analyses the macroeconomic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the euro area, and
Global trade linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI
Productivity gains from AI are expected to be significant, but how international trade shapes the cross-country distribution of these gains remains an open question. This
A plan to revitalise the World Trade Organization
Saving the WTO will require EU-led alliances, better subsidy disciplines and new plurilateral routes, even if some initiatives sit outside the WTO. The World Trade
A smarter approach to electricity rationing
Ukraine’s grid operators have primarily relied on rotational outages to manage power scarcity, but this effectively functions as regressive tax on those least equipped to
When the ruler is made of the thing it measures: Multi-model evidence on AI occupational exposure scores
To estimate how AI is reshaping work, it is now standard to ask AI itself to score how exposed each occupation is. The instrument is
Defragmenting European Union climate policy
Simplification without carbon price convergence risks deeper fragmentation, higher costs and weaker credibility for the EU’s climate target. Executive summary There is broad agreement that the European
Europe’s public finances in a warming world
Climate change is increasingly shaping macro-fiscal outlooks. Extreme weather events, chronic damages from global warming, and decarbonisation efforts all have growing implications for public finances
Income, democracy, and growth: Broadening the perspective
Does prosperity bring democracy? Does democracy boost prosperity? This column argues that the answer to both questions depends critically on whether a country has made
The EU fiscal framework undermines innovation and security
European member states may now exceed deficit limits if the borrowing finances defence. This column argues that this fiscal exemption is economically incoherent: it subsidises
Brexit migration shifts: Benchmarking the UK to Germany
Brexit has been one of the most consequential institutional shocks to a major European economy in recent decades. This column examines how Brexit reshaped the
