Artificial intelligence tools can now produce highly realistic text, images, and videos at almost no cost, prompting concerns that the proliferation of fabricated content may mean mainstream news outlets lose both the trust and demand of their audience. This column reports the results of a field experiment in partnership with one of Germany’s most respected […]
Household saving and labour supply are shaped by many risks – wages, marriage, health, longevity – as well as bequest motives. This column develops a model that tracks individuals from age 26 through to retirement and death to show how these risks interact to drive economic behaviour. The findings highlight that incorporating risk, and how […]
GDP growth seen at 3.3% in 2025. Turkey’s medium-term economic programme forecasts inflation to hit 28.5% in 2025 and 16% in 2026, before reaching single digits from 2027, according to a text of the economic roadmap published in the Official Gazette on Sunday. The programme, which sets the government’s economic roadmap for the next three […]
ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June. Gold prices hovered near an all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut this month, while market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the […]
The two most prominent arguments President Trump has advanced for his trade war – both during the early months of his second term, and for decades prior – are that protectionism will reduce the trade deficit and increase manufacturing employment. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump […]
Financial markets are volatile, and research attributes this to highly variable and often irrational investor beliefs. This column uses a large-scale survey of Chinese retail investors to study the role of investor memory in financial decision-making. Combining free recall of market episodes and probed recall of personal returns, it finds that sharp crashes and dramatic […]
As large language models gain traction, it is important to ensure that decisions delegated to them comply with ethical and legal principles. This column reports on an experiment in which state-of-the-art large language models were prompted to impersonate the CEO of a fictitious financial firm needing to repay corporate debt urgently with no funds available […]
There is a growing push from certain quarters for the European Commission to weaken merger control in order to spur greater investment and innovation, higher productivity and growth, or the creation of European champions. This column argues that there are empirical and theoretical grounds to strengthen, rather than weaken, merger control, and offers suggestions to […]
The US trade deficits will have to be reduced materially to prevent a crisis down the road. This column argues that fiscal consolidation, in association with a weaker dollar, appears to be the right way for the US to improve its trade balance. In addition, the US should pursue an outcome in which there is […]
The negative correlation between inequality and unionisation rates in the US has been extensively documented, but while the other direction of causality – the impact of inequality on the labour movement – has also been theorised, it has not been empirically tested. This column uses three distinct research settings to show how rising occupational wage […]
