Taking the pulse of global trade policy
How much has trade policy changed globally? This column introduces the Trade Policy Activity Index, a monthly measure of policy changes across 197 economies since
One global shock, many inflation paths: Inflation persistence after the Great Moderation
The post-COVID inflation surge was global, but inflation persistence was not. This column argues that the key difference lies in how strongly external shocks fed
The work-from-home wage premium
Studies have found that workers typically value the option to work from home and are willing to accept sizable wage cuts in exchange for it,
Bank recapitalisation versus firm support: A fiscal criterion for crisis policy
Governments routinely invest in private firms. This column argues that these investments have powerful effects on an economy’s crisis resilience, and that those effects depend
The granular origins of inflation
Textbook monetary economics views inflation as fundamentally driven by aggregate shocks, such as money supply or policy rates. This column presents empirical evidence that inflation
Understanding inflation with textual analysis: How news about commodities improves predictions
Commodity prices have historically been considered leading indicators of inflation, but the relationship has weakened since the mid-1980s, making them less reliable predictors. This column
Investor memory and biased beliefs: Evidence from the field
Financial markets are volatile, and research attributes this to highly variable and often irrational investor beliefs. This column uses a large-scale survey of Chinese retail
The Federal Reserve, the new administration, and the outlook for the economy and monetary policy
The new US administration has made the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymaking more complicated both because of the elevated uncertainty regarding administration policies and because of
Dangling fiscal surveillance: EU fiscal policies in 2024
Effectively suspended since the onset of the Covid pandemic, the EU fiscal rules were set to make a comeback in 2024. At the same time,
Non-bank financial institutions’ reliance on banks for contingent credit under stress and its consequences
In recent years, banks’ credit line exposure to non-bank financial institutions has grown significantly. This column analyses the implications by focusing on a specific type
