Global trade to hit record $35trln despite slowing momentum

Between July and September, global trade grew 2.5% compared with the previous three months.

Global trade is expected to grow about 7% in 2025, adding $2.2 trillion and setting a new record with East Asia, Africa and South–South trade the strongest drivers of global gains, according to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Manufacturing-especially electronics-remains the main engine of growth, while energy and automotive sectors lag, it stated.

Trade imbalances stay high and geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping flows, with friend-shoring and nearshoring strengthening again.

Between July and September, global trade grew 2.5% compared with the previous three months. Goods rose nearly 2%, services 4%. Growth is expected to continue in the year’s final quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.

If projections hold, goods would add about $1.5 trillion to this year’s total and services $750 billion, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase.

The global trade is on course to exceed $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, stated UNCTAD in its final trade update of the year.

The new data confirm that trade continued expanding through the second half of 2025, even as geopolitical tensions, higher costs and uneven global demand slowed momentum.

As per UNCTAD estimates, the global trade growth remains strong in 2025, but slowed in 3rd and 4th quarters.

Trailing four quarters growth measures the change in a variable over the last four quarters compared to the previous four quarters (Q1 2024 to Q4 2024). Quarterly growth (QoQ) is the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of seasonally adjusted values. Figures for Q3 2025 are preliminary. Q4 2025 is a nowcast as of 2 December 2025.

A key shift is unfolding on prices, stated the report. After two quarters in which trade values rose partly because goods became more expensive, prices are now expected to drop.

As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 comes from higher volumes – the actual quantity of goods shipped – rather than from price increases. This points to stable demand even as inflation eases, it added.

© ZAWYA