Not all geopolitical shocks are inflationary
Geopolitical tensions are often seen as a source of inflation. But this is only part of the story. This column shows that geopolitical shocks transmitted
Global imbalances and the China challenge
China’s trade surplus is widening, its manufactured exports are surging, and the political backlash is intensifying. This column argues that the widening trade surplus reflects
How to lend and spend money to increase the gains from international migration
It has long been argued that even relatively small increases in global migration could result in gains that far exceed the total of all foreign
Building resilience to global financial shocks in emerging markets
Emerging markets are vulnerable to sudden shifts in investor sentiment, which can lead to pressure on exchange rates and financing conditions. Using panel evidence from
Energy markets under chokepoint stress: The 2026 Hormuz shock
The 2026 Middle East conflict and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz generated the largest physical supply disruption in the history of
The price elasticity of US shale oil supply: Insights from a natural experiment
The 2026 Iran war provides a natural experiment that allows model-free estimation of the price elasticity of US shale oil supply. This column argues that
Alphabet raises $3.9 billion in inaugural Australian dollar bond
Alphabet has raised A$5.5 billion ($3.89 billion) via its inaugural Australian dollar debt issuance, according to a term sheet seen by Reuters, adding to the hectic
How shifts in geoeconomic power are rewiring global trade
Trade growth stalled after the Global Financial Crisis, and world trade is now splitting along geopolitical lines. This poses a distinctive challenge for the EU,
Green finance or financing green? Bridging the EU’s sustainable-finance and capital-market architectures
The European Union has not done a good job of integrating its green goals with its overall approach to finance. Sustainability disclosure and capital markets
Trade restrictions, trade policy uncertainty and FDI flows
Trade policy has become a major source of macroeconomic risk. The sharp rise in trade restrictions and the growing unpredictability of trade rules are reshaping
