The influence that investor sentiment can have on market movements is often overlooked by traditional financial models. This column analyses nearly three million stock-related tweets to investigate whether sentiment derived from such tweets can predict intraday stock market fluctuations. The findings suggest that tweet-based sentiment strongly predicts market trends in both developed and emerging markets. […]
As extreme heat events become more frequent and severe, rising temperatures will increase the incidence of heatstroke, kidney damage, and cardiovascular stress. This column considers extreme heat as not only a direct health threat, but also a systems-level shock that will expose and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in healthcare delivery. To prepare for a future of […]
The effect of the recent inflation cycle on the anchoring of inflation expectations remains a policy concern. This column documents the evolution of euro area firms’ inflation expectations during the disinflation episode since 2022 using novel survey data. Firms’ short-term inflation expectations declined steadily towards the inflation target as the disinflation progressed. However, there is […]
Economists have long struggled to measure the informal economy, despite its significant role in global economic activity. Previous methods have relied on indirect proxies such as cash circulation or electricity usage, or on inferences based on highly structured macroeconomic models. This column introduces a new, algorithmic and easily updateable approach to estimating informal activity in […]
The platform digital economy has radically transformed labour markets, with food delivery couriers emerging as one of its most visible symbols. This column examines the controversial practice of sidestepping traditional employment regulations and social protections by subcontracting food delivery couriers. The authors suggest that well-intended policies requiring firms to reclassify these workers as dependent employees […]
Advances in artificial intelligence are rapidly transforming the world of work. This column investigates the effects of machine translation on (1) employment and wages in the translation sector, and (2) the demand for foreign language skills across various jobs and industries. Using variation in the use of machine translation across local labour markets in the […]
An increase in people’s awareness may be key to realign (economic) value and (ethical) values. This column investigates whether a mismatch exists between the economic value of a profession and self-reported valuations of selected professions by 2,000 households in Germany. There is a significant gap between the earnings and valuations of professions, with professions that […]
The distribution of international investment, even at the country level, has many zeros and also has fat tails. This makes most linear estimators ill-suited for statistical analysis of international investment. Using unconditional quantile regressions, this column finds evidence of nonlinearities in the drivers of investment at different points in the investment distribution. Considering these non-linear […]
Independent shops and services lining high streets across the UK serve more than a commercial function. This column studies how different types of commercial spaces – from garages and convenience stores to pubs and bookshops – affected the electoral fortunes of the UK Independent Party from 2011 to 2019. The findings suggest that a decrease […]
Regulators increasingly rely on supervisory technologies to enhance bank supervision, yet their potential to discipline risky bank behaviour remains unclear. Using unique data from the Central Bank of Brazil, this column shows that after a ‘SupTech’ event, banks disclose inconsistencies in their risk reporting and tighten credit to less creditworthy firms, effectively reducing risk-taking. This […]
