How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This column uses firm-level customs data to study the impact of Brexit on UK goods trade. The authors find that in the short term, exit from the Single Market and Customs Union reduced worldwide UK exports by 6.4% and worldwide imports by at least 3.1%. Importers partly […]
The US-China trade war has led to growth in economic activity in some ‘winner’ countries, which have gained from relocated US-bound production and also increased exports to the rest of the world. This column presents evidence that relocated production for the US market has, in some cases, retained ‘Chinese characteristics’ through Chinese listed firms’ foreign […]
The fusion of artificial intelligence and finance is revolutionising asset pricing. This column explores how AI-driven asset pricing models, particularly those incorporating transformers, leverage cross-asset information sharing to reduce pricing errors and enhance predictive accuracy. As AI continues to evolve, its role in financial decision-making will only grow, offering new opportunities for investors and reshaping […]
The quality of political leadership is a central determinant of state capacity. This column studies the prevalence and impact of candidates with criminal backgrounds holding public office in Brazil. Individuals who have been charged with a crime are twice as likely to run for office and to be elected, a pattern that persists across political […]
With President Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on 2 April, he appears to be waging an economic war against the rest of the world. This column turns to non-cooperative game theory to attempt to understand what Trump thinks the US will gain from this war. Although including Europe’s military security vulnerabilities may give Trump the […]
The 2008 crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic presented monetary policy frameworks worldwide with significant challenges. This column reports the results of an updating of the Comprehensive Monetary Policy Frameworks classification, which now covers 186 countries over the 50 years from 1974 to 2023. The key finding is that countries have been switching between monetary frameworks […]
Though geopolitical risks can dampen business sentiment – constraining firm investment and international trade – there is less evidence of how such tensions affect households. This column examines how geopolitical risks spill over into consumer sentiment and spending behaviour. The authors find that such factors lead to pessimistic economic expectations and elevated income uncertainty. Consumers […]
The tariff measures announced by President Trump on 2 April 2025 represent a seismic shift in the global trading landscape. This column describes how, by positioning trade deficits themselves as threats to national security rather than focusing on specific unfair practices, the US has moved away from rules-based trade governance toward a results-oriented and probably […]
The EU is adjusting its supply chains to mitigate risks and align with evolving trade and industrial policies. This column analyses trade patterns from 2021 to 2023 and finds that EU imports are shifting away from countries without trade agreements with the EU and gravitating both inwards and towards regional neighbours and distant partners engaged […]
Since 2021, developed countries have experienced a significant inflation episode. This column uses Decision Maker Panel data from UK CEOs and CFOs to study firms’ inflation perceptions and expectations around monthly official inflation releases. Firms’ expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated, suggesting salience is a key issue, as the […]
