The idea of an episode of negative sentiment causing poor economic performance has gained prominence in the press and drawn attention from policymakers struggling to read contradictory macroeconomic signals. This column applies natural language-processing tools to assess the importance of narratives for the US business cycle. The analysis suggests that contagious narratives are an important […]
In the last 20 years, the share of German firms with political connections has increased, but the impact of political connections on firm growth is not clear. This column examines how German firm outcomes are affected when federal politicians serve as firm directors or officers. Firms appointing a politician to a corporate position are less […]
The impact of a US-China technological decoupling on trade, foreign direct investment, and welfare is quantified using a simple dynamic quantitative trade model that includes FDI as a channel of technology diffusion. By evaluating the impacts of restrictions on technology diffusion and export controls separately, this column suggests that the potential negative impact of a […]
Financial crises affect economic activity and may also distort global supply chains. This column estimates the network effects of crises by examining European multinational enterprises during the Great Recession in the 2000s. A larger network shock (captured using changes in risk premia across European countries) during the financial crisis led to lower growth in the […]
Despite exceeding 100% of GDP, US public debt is considered safe due to the country’s role as a safe global asset and reserve currency supplier. This column uses a model to quantify the additional debt capacity generated by this ‘exorbitant privilege’ status. It finds that the special status of the US increases maximal sustainable debt […]
The transfer of technical information is key to unlocking a country’s ability to develop. This column argues that ‘technical literacy’ is needed so the economy can effectively absorb these new technologies. Using the case study of Japan in the 1870s, the authors demonstrate that a state-organsed knowledge transfer, centred on improved education and translation of […]
As the global economy fragments along geopolitical lines, countries are seeking new ways to flourish, or at least insulate themselves against geopolitical shocks. Drawing from a newly constructed database, this column explores the concept of ‘connector’ countries, which can be vertical along supply chains or horizontal across markets. The authors argue that vertical connectors may […]
The credibility of an institution is, almost, synonymous with how well it is trusted. This column uses survey data to examine how trust in various institutions – the government, parliament, the EU, the IMF, and the World Bank – is affected by respondents’ views on aspects of the economy (their own financial situation, the need […]
Manila, Philippines- 23/08/24 We TraiCon Events will be hosting Philippines’ premier cyber security event titled as “Cyber Revolution Summit” scheduled on 10th September 2024 in, Philippines. This summit will feature keynote presentations and panel discussions with top security experts from various industries covering a range of topics, including cybersecurity innovations, data privacy & security, risk […]
The evolution and changing content of work is a defining feature of advanced economies. Jobs that did not exist in the US before 2000, for example, now employ millions of people. This column analyses the role of local factors and exposure to global shocks in generating ‘new work’. The findings point to the role of […]
