If you invested one dollar in the post-war years in a diversified portfolio of all publicly traded firms, by 1980 you would have seen a real return of zero. Instead, if you invested one dollar in 1980, today you would have nearly ten dollars. This column argues that the rise of stock market valuations is […]
Household inflation expectations feature prominently in current central bank policy discussions. This column summarises key insights from the recent literature on household inflation expectations for the conduct of monetary policy. First, households appear to act on their beliefs about inflation, yet often in heterogeneous and context-dependent ways. Second, household inflation expectations present significant deviations from […]
Flexible working time arrangements can help parents reconcile family and work commitments. This column examines the impact of the statutory right to work part-time on the labour supply and labour income of eligible mothers in Germany. The entitlement to work part-time leads to an increase in part-time employment, in the short and long run, and […]
The spread of propaganda, misinformation, and biased narratives, especially on social media, is a growing concern in many democracies. This column explores the EU ban on Russian state-led news outlets after the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine to find out whether censorship curbs the spread of slanted narratives. While the ban did reduce pro-Russian slant […]
As the fight against climate change intensifies, governments are exploring all available policy tools, including trade policy. But does it actually help? This column examines the case of developing countries fulfilling their voluntary emission reduction pledges under the Paris Agreement. Our findings suggest a limited role for trade policy as a climate strategy. Tariff reforms […]
Social media platforms allow for immediate and widespread dissemination of scientific discourse. However, social media may distort public perceptions of academia through two channels: the set of topics being discussed and the style of communication. This column uses a global dataset of 100,000 scholars to study the content, tone, and focus of their social media […]
Geopolitical downside risk to oil production can have sizeable effects on oil price uncertainty and the global economy. This column argues, however, that it is not a major driver of macroeconomic fluctuations because large shifts in such risk are rare. Macroeconomic disaster risk is a more important driver of economic downturns. It also increases oil […]
Will the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves undermine the dollar’s predominant role in official foreign exchange reserves? This column examines the aggregate evidence since end-2021 for any reduction in the dollar share of official foreign exchange reserves against a baseline constructed with data from 1999 through 2021. The observed dollar share […]
Artificial intelligence can act to either stabilise the financial system or to increase the frequency and severity of financial crises. This second column in a two-part series argues that the way things turn out may depend on how the financial authorities choose to engage with AI. The authorities are at a considerable disadvantage because private-sector […]
Housing is at the core of economics. It represents most households’ largest asset, and rent similarly accounts for a significant portion of inflation indexes as a major household expenditure. This column uses data from the Historical Housing Prices Project to produce a nationwide index for US house prices spanning the period 1890 to 2006. The […]
