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Politics Economy Featured World

The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: A preliminary assessment

The world is adjusting to President Trump’s second ‘first hundred days’ in office. This column introduces a new CEPR eBook in which over 50 experts explore how the new administration’s policies are reshaping the US economy and sending ripples across the global economic order. While the assessment is preliminary, in part due to the great […]

Economy Environment Featured Social Security World

Quantifying global debt risks amid high and rising public debt

As global debt continues to climb, evaluating debt risks is critical. This column introduces a novel ‘debt-at-risk’ framework that uses information on current macro-financial and political conditions to construct the full distribution of potential future debt outcomes. The framework shows that debt risks are high, rising, and tilted to the upside. Debt levels are projected […]

Technology Featured Innovation Productivity

Generative AI in universities: Grades up, signals down, skills in flux

Student use of artificial intelligence is reshaping learning and redefining the skills of future workers. This column examines the impact of generative AI tools on academic performance at an Israeli university. Using data from more and less AI-compatible courses, before and after the introduction of ChatGPT, the authors show that AI raises grades – especially […]

Gender Featured Lifestyle World

Default to mum: How institutions quietly shape gender roles in parenting

Mothers continue to shoulder the majority of childcare responsibilities even in dual-earner households, contributing to gender gaps in earnings, labour force participation, and career advancement. This column uses an experiment targeting over 80,000 US school principals to show that when a school needs to contact a parent, the mother is 1.4 times more likely than […]

Banking Economy Featured Finance News

From banks to nonbanks: Macroprudential and monetary policy effects on corporate lending

The growing footprint of nonbank financial institutions in corporate credit markets raises important – but often overlooked – questions about how monetary and macroprudential policies shape credit allocation to the real economy. Using global syndicated loan data, this column shows that nonbanks act as shock absorbers, shielding nonfinancial firms from tightening in both monetary and […]

Economy Featured Lifestyle News

Hiroshima: Resilience of city structure after the atomic bombing

Cities have faced a host of shocks throughout history, including earthquakes, hurricanes, coastal flooding, and storm surges, as well as wartime destruction, such as in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. This column looks at one of the most dramatic events in history, the atomic bombing of the city of Hiroshima in Japan, to explore the mechanisms […]

trade Business Featured News World

Trump tariff policy, uncertainty, and the role of economics

President Trump’s tariff policy is shaking the global economy and generating high levels of trade policy uncertainty. This column challenges the economic reasoning behind recent US trade policies. It argues that tariffs generally lower economic welfare by distorting resource allocations. Furthermore, the resulting trade policy uncertainty will have additional negative effects on the global economy […]