Accurately forecasting recessions remains a critical issue in macroeconomic analysis. This column introduces a new machine learning algorithm to predict recession risks for 20 OECD countries over quarterly horizons up to two years. The Doombot algorithm tests many combinations of financial and business cycle variables, but also imposes restrictions consistent with basic macroeconomic logic. The […]

This Policy Brief sets out why the deforestation regulation has the right objectives but needed better design and preparation for implementation Forests are essential to regulating the climate, absorbing greenhouse gases and providing fresh water and habitats for biodiversity and indigenous peoples. If deforestation continues at current rates, large parts of the planet will become […]