There is a growing concern that tensions between China and the US may lead to an unravelling of globalisation. This column discusses how rivalry between great powers can be detrimental to global trade and welfare and introduces the theory of hegemonic globalisation. Analysis of bilateral and multilateral treaties since 1800 shows that a dominant global […]
How states leverage sovereign debt to support their military endeavours has been examined thoroughly, but the relationship between private finance and armed conflict remains underexplored. Using data on loans by creditors to firms in 179 countries over 1989–2020, this column documents how foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks during violent conflicts but […]
As part of the ongoing US-China trade war, since 2020 the US has restricted the exports of cutting-edge semiconductors from third countries to Huawei. This column analyses the indirect effects of US export regulations on exports of Huawei suppliers in Japan. Although Japan itself did not export cutting-edge semiconductors, exports of affected suppliers declined in […]
The timely detection of recessions is critical for policymakers to make informed decisions. This column presents an algorithm for detecting recessions early using labour market data. By combining unemployment and vacancy rates, it shows that a less noisy signal can be obtained compared to relying on a single measure like industrial production. Current official prediction […]
Economic research often treats tools such as tariffs, subsides, interest rates, monetary policy, and austerity measures as gender neutral. This column argues that when sex-disaggregated data and gender analysis are missing from models and policy decisions, the result is incomplete economic analysis and inequitable outcomes. What’s missing from economics isn’t just women’s voices, but women’s […]
How does generative AI affect real workplace productivity? This column reports results from an experiment at the National Bank of Slovakia, where staff were randomly assigned GPT-4o access while completing routine and non-routine tasks. The model improved output quality by up to 44% and cut completion time by 21%, with the largest gains on non-routine, […]
The successful integration of second-generation immigrants into education and employment is essential for Europe’s long-term social and economic cohesion. This column uses the results of the latest edition of the European Labour Force Survey to assess the demographic profile, educational attainment, and employment outcomes of second-generation immigrants, finding that they tend to be younger and […]
Barclays first-half profit rose by a better-than-expected 23%, the British bank said on Tuesday, as its markets business reaped bumper returns from the frenzied trading activity sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Pretax profit for the January-June period totalled 5.2 billion pounds ($6.9 billion), above analysts’ average forecast of 4.96 billion pounds. The bank […]
Developers of green hydrogen have scaled back investments and scrapped projects globally as elevated production costs and weak demand for the low-carbon fuel have made many ventures unviable. Here are some projects that have been cancelled, postponed or scaled back. EUROPE ** Energy company LEAG’s plans to build one of Europe’s largest green energy hubs on […]
Green hydrogen developers are cancelling projects and trimming investments around the world, raising the prospect of longer than targeted reliance on fossil fuels. The challenges facing the sector have exposed its initial ambitions as unrealistic. Hard-to-electrify industries that were seen as ideal candidates for green hydrogen, such as steelmaking and long-distance transportation, have found that transition to […]
