Equity markets are already expecting an increase in volatility before the US presidential election. This uncertainty may add to the already high macroeconomic uncertainty. This column analyses the economic implications of changes in US election odds through the lens of financial markets. A higher likelihood of Trump’s election (1) increases the volatility in the US […]
Both Black and white infant mortality rates in the US have fallen in the past century, but racial inequality in infant mortality is worse. This column studies the impact of a large-scale hospital modernisation programme in the 20th century on healthcare capacity and mortality outcomes, with a focus on racial inequality. Upgrading healthcare reduced infant […]
In 2019, the UK government became the first major economy to pass laws with a target of net zero by 2050. The May 2024 CfM survey asked its UK panel to assess the impact of the measures taken to meet this net zero commitment on the UK’s long-term economic growth, and to choose the most […]
In recent decades, LGBTQ+ communities have received increased attention from policymakers. But the issues facing intersex people – whose sex characteristics do not fit binary notions of male and female – remain largely invisible. This column discusses the challenges faced by intersex communities in Mexico, where a nationally representative dataset reveals that approximately 1.6% of […]
Disruptions from conflicts, climate change, and the pandemic have raised the question of whether today’s supply chains and transportation networks more resilient or vulnerable. This column examines the evolution of transport use and costs over the last 55 years, and its implications for international trade and supply chains. Goods are now transported by more countries […]
Wage rigidity – for example, due to collective contracts – can generate employment fluctuations, particularly during economic downturns. This column studies the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity on wage and employment dynamics during the 1993 and 2009 recessions in Spain. It shows that collective contracts renegotiated just before the recession led to higher wage […]
Governments around the world mostly rely on two types of policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transport – fuel taxes, which affect driving behaviour, and standards that regulate either average fuel economy or average emissions directly, which affect technology adoption. This column shows that standards have also been effective in inducing clean innovation […]
Natural resource dependence subjects economies to macroeconomic and structural challenges. The focus of attention in the ‘resource curse’ literature has been on the export side, while the import side has received much less attention. This column uses new firm-level data on imports in 53 countries to explore the effect of natural resource dependence on market […]
Trade wars can have large macroeconomic consequences, but there is limited focus on the interaction between optimal trade and macroeconomic policies. This column studies the optimal design of trade policies under different monetary policy rules. It finds that in a trade war, a monetary policy rule which targets Consumer Price Index inflation leads to lower […]
The US Inflation Reduction Act has sparked concern in the EU that it could shift investments to the US, threatening EU competitiveness in burgeoning green industries. This column argues that this perceived negative impact should be re-evaluated in light of the EU’s own green funding initiatives. With strategic use of available EU funds, member states […]
