Barclays sees no further ECB rate cuts before end-2026 after policy decision
The ECB kept interest rates steady at 2% for the third meeting in a row. Barclays revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s rate
Big manufacturing economies struggle as US tariffs hit order books
Euro zone factory activity stagnated as new orders flatlined and headcount fell. The world’s big manufacturing economies struggled to fire up in October, business surveys
Dollar index at three-month high, testing top of recent range
The yen was at 154.1 per dollar, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials. The dollar hovered near a three-month high
Gold gains on US interest rate expectations
Investors have their eyes on other news, including ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators that could alter the Fed’s hawkish
When debt perceptions shape fiscal futures
Voters fear debt, but they do not understand it. Using data across 13 countries, this column shows that most people dramatically misjudge debt levels and
The lasting economic scars of war
Wars leave deep and lasting scars on economies. Using data for 115 conflicts across 145 countries over the past 75 years, this column documents large
Dutch households spend less of their income on fixed and necessary expenditures
Households with high fixed and necessary expenditures relative to income are more vulnerable to income shocks. This column examines fixed and necessary expenditures for middle-income
China’s shrinking oil footprint: How electric vehicle adoption is shaping China’s oil consumption
Between 2005 and 2024, China more than doubled its oil consumption, accounting for over half of the global increase in oil demand during that period.
Updating my priors on the effectiveness of wage subsidies in developing countries
In 2017 I published (ungated) a review of active labor market programs in developing countries, in which I concluded that the “accumulated evidence suggests that wage subsidies
Overcoming the middle-income trap: Why institutions matter
Many middle-income countries (MICs) aspire to achieve high-income status, yet only a few succeed. Since 1990, just 34 countries have made this transition. Today, 108 nations
