Gorey said investor positioning had become more neutral in recent weeks, and that because the Ukraine-Russia war was not impeding grain exports.
U.S. wheat futures steadied on Thursday, supported by a weaker dollar, having fallen nearly 1% in the previous session after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimates for global production, cementing expectations for ample supply.
Soybean futures were unchanged after rising on Wednesday when the USDA confirmed sales of 136,000 metric tons of U.S. beans to China, another 331,000 tons to undisclosed destinations and 120,000 tons of soymeal to Poland.
Corn was also flat.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 0.2% at $5.30-1/2 a bushel at 0503 GMT, after falling to $5.25-1/4 on Wednesday, its lowest since October 31.
The U.S. dollar eased 0.1% against a basket of major peers after slipping 0.4% on Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. A weaker dollar makes U.S. crops cheaper for buyers with other currencies and can boost demand.
The USDA on Tuesday raised its wheat production forecasts for this season in major exporters, including Russia, Australia and Canada, and increased its global ending stocks estimate by 3.4 million tons, more than most analysts had expected.
“We expect wheat prices to settle into a range,” said Tobin Gorey, founder of consultants Cornucopia.
Gorey said investor positioning had become more neutral in recent weeks, and that because the Ukraine-Russia war was not impeding grain exports, any moves towards peace were unlikely to significantly move prices.
CBOT soybeans were unchanged at $10.91-1/4 a bushel, having slipped to their lowest since late October on Wednesday.
Prices are down around 6.5% from a 17-month high of $11.69-1/2 hit last month due to weak U.S. export demand.
StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said China had purchased around 6 million tons of U.S. soybeans since Washington and Beijing agreed a trade truce in late October – far below the 12 million tons that U.S. officials said China would buy by year-end.
Top soybean producer Brazil is also just a few weeks from beginning what is expected to be a record harvest, though LSEG analysts said heavy rain was disrupting cropping in parts of the country.
Corn was unchanged at $4.44-1/4 a bushel. Prices have barely budged this month, with strong U.S. export demand offset by plentiful global supply.
The weak performance of business investment across the OECD since the Global Financial Crisis holds…
The US dollar has dominated the international monetary system since the end of Bretton Woods.…
Solid waste is one of the most visible by-products of human prosperity—and one of the…
Climate mitigation investment increases with long horizons, economic scale and investor diversity, underscoring long-term capital…
China is relatively inured to the Iran conflict, but less external demand could hit its…
The composition of international reserves is in a constant state of flux. This column identifies…